Alex Caruso

How Alex Caruso-Josh Giddey Swap Impacts Oklahoma City's 2025 Title Odds

The National Basketball Association's fourth-ranked defense just got more formidable, resulting in a slight uptick from oddsmakers in the way-too-early championship odds for the 2024-25 season

The Chicago Bulls are reportedly trading Alex Caruso to the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for guard Josh Giddey, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. 

(Related Link) NBA Championship Odds 2025: Boston Celtics Favored To Repeat

Updated 2025 NBA Championship Odds

TeamOdds Prior To TradeOdds After Trade
Oklahoma City Thunder+1000+900
Chicago Bulls+45000+55000

Caruso will become eligible for a four-year, $80-million contract extension six months after the date of this trade becoming official, and the Thunder reportedly have every intention of keeping him around for the long term. 

Oklahoma City head coach Mark Daigneault was even Caruso's coach for the Oklahoma City Blue in 2016-17 when Caruso was signed as an undrafted free agent, although the franchise later waived him before the start of the season. 

The 30-year-old guard was named a member of the NBA's All-Defensive Second Team in 2024, and made the All-Defensive First Team the year prior. He averaged a career-high 10.1 points across 71 appearances this past season for the 39-43 Bulls, shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from 3-point range. Caruso also tied for third overall in steals per game at 1.7, with his defense undoubtedly being his primary asset on the hardwood.

Oklahoma City only allowed 111 points per 100 possessions in 2023-24, which was a noticeable improvement over the 113.2 points per 100 possessions allowed in 2022-23. The team now adds one of the league's elite perimeter defenders in Caruso who's only making $9.9 million next season to pair alongside other top-tier defenders in Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Most Valuable Player finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The writing was on the wall that Giddey's future with the Thunder was going to be cut short, as the roster is full of playmakers who require the ball to be in their hands. Caruso has never been that type of contributor, and considering both players only had a year remaining on their respective contracts, Oklahoma City isn't bending over backwards to accommodate this move. It will still have a wealth of financial flexibility to work with, maintaining most if not all of its projected cap space. 

The Thunder are coming off a campaign in which they finished with the best record in the loaded Western Conference, advancing all the way to the second round of the playoffs without any real prior postseason experience to work with. They remove Caruso as a trade chip for all of the other contenders who were vying for his services, and gain his championship expertise considering he was a member of the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers squad that hoisted the Larry O'Brien trophy in the Bubble.

Who Won The Alex Caruso-Josh Giddey Swap?

While the latest odds don't represent a cataclysmic shift in the title picture just yet, this is the type of move that can ultimately determine who comes out of the West, because Caruso is that much of a difference-maker. 

This is an unbelievable, fantastic, superb, and any other positive adjective you'd like to use type of deal for the Thunder. Not having to part with even one of the endless amount of picks they have at their disposal is an absurd notion, but general manager Sam Presti pulled it off.

Oklahoma City's ceiling was already incredibly high, but Presti raised it even further. Rolling out a lineup of Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Caruso, Wallace, and Chet Holmgren for defense is the equivalent of a "Saw" trap that should strike fear in the hearts of the 29 other teams. 

As far as the Bulls are concerned, it's a head-scratcher in the sense that the front office could have moved Caruso earlier and perhaps gotten more in return, but they're clearly smitten with Giddey and see him as a potential replacement for the forever-injured Lonzo Ball in the backcourt.

With that being said, Giddey was a liability for the Thunder in the postseason, and he can't stretch the floor nearly as efficiently as Caruso, nor is he anywhere near the defender. He's only 22 years of age and his per-36 numbers are strong with 11 career triple-doubles, but Chicago didn't maximize Caruso's value, and not getting even a second rounder as part of the package is inexcusable. 

Winner: Oklahoma City Thunder by leaps and bounds

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