The stage is set for an exhilarating NBA Finals! Before the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks battle for the 2024 NBA Championship, let's take a closer look at some relevant NBA Finals betting trends. Below I'll analyze key Boston Celtics playoff and historical betting trends that could influence your wagers for the 2024 NBA Finals.
Jump To Trends
Boston Celtics Historical NBA Finals Betting Trends
The juggernaut Celtics enter the 2024 NBA Finals on the precipice of history. Boston sits at 76-20 through the regular season and playoffs, which is just the 15th time in NBA history a team has entered the Finals with 20 or fewer losses. Only the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, who famously won 73 regular season games, failed to win the NBA Championship. Remember, those Warriors faced one of the greatest players of all-time, Lebron James at the very peak of his powers. Intriguingly, one-time-Celtics-now-Mavericks star Kyrie Irving was Lebron's sidekick that year, and put the final nail in the Warriors coffin in Game 7.
One team! One lone team has lost in the NBA Finals with 20 or fewer losses entering the championship series, to arguably the greatest player of all-time. You got that?
Additionally, the Mavericks at +184 odds would be the third largest upset in the Finals since the merger. Behind only the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons who were +500 underdogs, and 2019 Toronto Raptors, who entered the NBA Finals as +250 dogs. Boston are -225 favorites to beat the Mavs. Since 1990, teams listed as -200 or higher favorites are 21-3 in the NBA Finals, with the Pistons, Raptors, and aforementioned 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers as the only aberrations.
However, it's important to note that each of these upsets represent historical outliers. As Karl Malone missed most of the championship series, and Shaquille O'Neal was less than 100% for most of that Lakers' season. Moreover, the quartet hardly played together at all, as Kobe missed 17 games, Shaq missed 15 and Malone missed 40 after an early season knee injury.
While Kawhi Leonard's 2019 Raptors playoff run will go down with the greatest in NBA playoff history, Toronto benefitted greatly from injuries to both Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. With Kristaps Porzingis reportedly set to return for the NBA Finals, Joe Mazzulla will have his full rotation on hand. Boston won't face any of the same injury problems that doomed other Finals' favorites.
Seed of NBA Champ
— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) May 29, 2024
1 seed - 50x
2 seed - 16x
3 seed - 8x
4 seed - 1x
5 seed - 0x
6 seed - 1x
Only 2x in 76 previous years has the NBA Champ been a 4 seed or lower
Dallas is a #5 seed pic.twitter.com/ajoNeBR79a
Additionally, the Celtics led the NBA in offensive rating this season, scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions, while also finishing second in defensive efficiency, allowing just 110.6 points per 100 possessions. Only two teams over the last 10 years have won the title with offenses ranked outside of the top five in the NBA. Similarly, only two squads in the past decade have won the title with a defense ranked outside of the top 10. Dallas was ninth in offensive rating, and 18th in defensive rating during the regular season.
Heed these statistics before you place your hard-earned money on the Dallas Mavericks to win the 2024 NBA Championship.
(Related Link) NBA Finals 2024: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Preview, Betting Odds
Boston Celtics 2024 Playoffs Spread History
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score | ATS | Spread | OU | Total |
|---|
| Apr 21, 2024 | vs Miami | W | 114-94 | W | -14.5 | U | 210 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | vs Miami | L | 111-101 | L | -14 | O | 205.5 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | @ Miami | W | 104-84 | W | -9.5 | U | 205 |
| Apr 29, 2024 | @ Miami | W | 102-88 | W | -10.5 | U | 204.5 |
| May 1, 2024 | vs Miami | W | 118-84 | W | -13.5 | O | 201.5 |
| May 7, 2024 | vs Cleveland | W | 120-95 | W | -12.5 | O | 211.5 |
| May 9, 2024 | vs Cleveland | L | 118-94 | L | -13 | U | 212.5 |
| May 11, 2024 | @ Cleveland | W | 106-93 | W | -7.5 | U | 211 |
| May 13, 2024 | @ Cleveland | W | 109-102 | L | -11.5 | O | 204 |
| May 15, 2024 | vs Cleveland | W | 113-98 | L | -15.5 | O | 205 |
| May 21, 2024 | vs Indiana | W | 133-128 | L | -9.5 | O | 223 |
| May 23, 2024 | vs Indiana | W | 126-110 | W | -9 | O | 224.5 |
| May 25, 2024 | @ Indiana | W | 114-111 | L | -7 | O | 220.5 |
| May 27, 2024 | @ Indiana | W | 105-102 | L | -7.5 | U | 222.5 |
Boston has gone 12-2 SU so far this postseason, but are just 7-7 ATS. The Celtics have gone an outstanding 43-6 SU at home, while going 33-14 SU on the road. That being said, sportsbooks have taken notice of the Celtics dominance. Boston were often heavy favorites this season, and are 48-43-5 ATS through the regular and postseason.
Totals are a similar story as the OVER is 51-45 in Celtics contests this so far, and 8-6 in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. There are precious few recent betting trends to hop on here.
That being said, Joe Mazzulla's squad have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Dallas, and 6-2 SU in their last 8 versus the Mavericks from the friendly confines of TD Garden.
(Related Link) 3 Reasons Why Boston Celtics Will Win 2024 NBA Championship
Boston Celtics 2024 Playoffs Player Props Trends
(Related Link) Ranking The 10 Best Players Of Celtics vs. Mavericks
Derrick White, 3-Pointers
- White has been on fire from deep this postseason, nailing 40.7% of 3-pointers.
- The Colorado product has nailed at least three 3-pointers in eight of the Celtics 14 playoff contests, with Boston going a perfect 8-0 when he surpasses his Game 1 prop of 2.5 threes.
Jayson Tatum, Points
- Tatum has played fantastic basketball this postseason averaging 26 points, 10.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game
- He's crossed his Game 1 point total of 27.5 in just five of his last 15 contests, and just four playoff games thus far.
Jaylen Brown, Points
- Jaylen Brown has averaged 25 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists and is coming off a spectacular Eastern Conference Finals in which he was named the MVP.
- Brown has surpassed his Game 1 point total of 23.5 in nine of 14 playoff games.
- Boston has gone 8-1 SU but just 4-5 ATS when Browns scores 24 or more points this postseason.
