The Boston Celtics have run roughshod through the NBA's Eastern Conference Playoffs. Jayson Tatum and company batted about and defeated the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers with ease en route to the NBA Finals. Joe Mazzulla's team remain massive favorites to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Here's three reasons the Celtics will defeat the Dallas Mavericks and win their record 18th NBA Championship.
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Advanced Analytics Are All in Celtics Favor
There are a plethora of statistical reasons to back the Boston Celtics in the 2024 NBA Finals. This juggernaut 64-win team looks poised to destroy the Mavericks.
The Celtics are the first team to lead the NBA in net rating in the regular season (+11.7 points per 100 possessions), as well as in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs. Boston was +17 in the first round against Miami, +8.5 against the Cavaliers, and +6.3 in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Indiana Pacers. Boston's +10.9 net rating this postseason would sit an impressive eighth all-time in NBA playoff history, behind some of the greatest teams in the annals of basketball: the 1955-56 Minneapolis Lakers (+16), 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers (+13.8), 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks (+13.6), 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (+13.5), 1990-91 Chicago Bulls (+13.2), 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (+12.1), 1986-87 Lakers (+11.3). Each of these teams won the NBA Championship.
Celtics
— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) May 28, 2024
Playoffs - Last 3 years
Last 5:00, 4th QTR/OT, plus/minus 6 points
FG%
2023/24 - .487
2022/23 - .437
2021/22 - .365
3P%
2023/24 - .450
2022/23 - .317
2021/22 - .227
moving swiftly in the right direction pic.twitter.com/KeNRhmHvG4
Boston has outscored their opponents by 9.9 (!) points per game from 3-point range. In other words, the Celtics have hit over three more 3-pointers a night than their opponents' this postseason. That's an insane differential on the most valuable shot on the hardwood. On top of that, they also lead the playoffs in outscoring opponents by 4.1 points per game at the rim, and 6.1 points per game on free throws.
Brad Stevens' Celtics have connected on an NBA leading 63.2% of field goals in the paint, while going a perfect 6-0 on the road so far this postseason. Boston also leads the playoffs in true shooting percentage (60).
Additionally, the Celtics have allowed opponents to shoot just 14.5 free throws per 100 shots, which would be the lowest opponent free-throw rate in NBA postseason history. They sit second in defensive rebounding percentage (77%), while holding opponents to only 8.3 second-chance points per game.
These Celtics have a chance to steamroll the Mavericks and enter the hallowed territory of historically great NBA squads.
Jayson Tatum
The NBA Finals MVP favorite has looked like his best self, as the Celtics have demolished the competition through the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
Bar all the scoring statistics, which are plentiful and impressive in their own right, Tatum will finally win his first NBA Championship because he has figured out how to dissect NBA playoff defenses. The 6'9 forward has improved his basketball IQ under the tutelage of Mazzulla. This has never been more prevalent than during this postseason run, as Tatum has expertly navigated double teams, while increasing his assist average to 5.9 per game.
Jayson Tatum
— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) May 28, 2024
Last 6 Qtrs
PTS - 52
TRB - 15
AST - 12
BLK 2
STL - 1
And just 1 turnover pic.twitter.com/300cgeTaOO
As Tatum's decision making has improved, the turnovers that hampered previous playoff runs have dissippated. The seventh-year swingman is protecting that basketball better than ever before with only 2.4 turnovers per game, and his 2.44 assist-to-turnover ratio is the best of his postseason career.
On top of that, the Duke product leads the playoffs in cumulative plus-minus, with his Celtics outscoring opponents by 141 points with him on the court. Jayson Tatum is at the peak of his powers, and will be more motivated than ever before to dispel the haunting ghosts of playoffs' past. He was at his very best in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Indiana Pacers, and that strong run of play will continue into the NBA Finals. Dallas has few answers for the three-level scoring ability of the 6'9 Tatum. With his newfound playmaking prowess, the Mavericks have little hope of slowing down Boston's devastating offensive onslaught.
Betting Trends Point to the Celtics Lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy
As they've been NBA Championship favorites for a long time, it shouldn't come as a surprise to see the Celtics installed as massive betting chalk.
However, Boston's odds as -225 series favorites puts them in hallowed betting territory. Since 1990, teams listed at -200 or higher to win the Finals are 21-3. The three losses remain aberrations.
First, the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers were a hyped team with four future NBA Hall-of-Famers. However, age and attrition got the better of the Lakers, as Karl Malone missed most of the NBA Finals, Gary Payton never truly fit into the Lakers triangle offense, and Shaq was overweight and out of shape all year. The Detroit Pistons defeated them in five games.
Next, the 2016 Golden State Warriors raced out to a 3-1 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Only the heroics of Lebron James and Kyrie Irving brought them back, culminating in a momentous Game 7 victory.
Finally, the 2019 Golden State Warriors entered their fifth straight NBA Finals as heavy favorites. However, the Warriors lost both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson to devastating injuries as the series progressed, and were undone by the generational playoff run of Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors.
All of this to say, sportsbooks believe that Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks would have to pull off something absolutely extraordinary to overcome the Boston Celtics.
