2025 NBA Playoff Picture Betting Odds: Heat's Struggles In Post-Butler Era Too Much

The betting odds for NBA playoff probability have eliminated a large portion of teams who are either strongly in contention to qualify or have zero chance stemming from their current win-loss record. Those still looking to secure their spot, though, can be wagered on for the time being, and there's value to be had.

Here's an updated look at the odds of eligible teams to either make or miss the playoffs, along with the probability of each of the Association's 30 squads to clinch a berth.

2025 NBA Playoff Betting Odds

Odds as of March 20, 2025 at FanDuel; Playoff Probability via Basketball-Reference.com

Best Bet To Miss NBA Playoffs: Miami Heat (-192)

With the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks evading them in the standings, the Miami Heat's main goal to close out the season will be to finish with a better win-loss record than the Chicago Bulls to secure home-court advantage in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in tournament opener. Chicago has defeated Miami in their initial two matchups this season, but the two sides do compete against each other one final time on April 9, and that could go a long way towards determining who gets to host the other in their own backyward.

The Heat have dropped nine games in a row and 10 of their last 11 as of Thursday, March 20, putting them in a lock with the Bulls with identical 29-40 records. They have the 25th-ranked offense since returning from the All-Star break, and blew a 17-point lead in the first half in their recent loss to Chicago on March 8. Things are spiralling out of control in a hurry, and they're currently giving bettors and fans little reason to believe they'll shake things off in time for the play-in.

Best Bet To Make NBA Playoffs: Chicago Bulls (+490)

On the other hand, and whether this was the intention or not, the Bulls have quietly built some momentum for themselves by going 5-2 across their last seven games. Their defense is allowing 108.5 points per 100 possessions during that stretch, good enough for seventh in the Association, and Coby White has led the charge by playing some of his best basketball of the campaign by averaging 28.3 points on roughly 48 percent shooting. 

They've defeated the Magic two out of three times thus far, and split the season series with Atlanta 2-2. Chicago would likely be favored in a winner-take-all with the Heat based on their history, and its proven it can go toe-to-toe with whoever would emerge from the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup, so at plus money, you really can't go wrong with a sprinkle.

Most NBA Playoff Appearances By Active Teams