The Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks are four victories away from their first NBA title since 2011, and for bettors looking to make bank on their upcoming best-of-seven series against the Boston Celtics, it's best to look back on Dallas' postseason run to find trends and patterns which could potentially carry over to this final round.
Here's a look at everything you need to know from the Mavericks' 17-game push to the Finals to best position you for profits when they battle it out with the Celtics for the Larry O'Brien trophy.
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Dallas Mavericks 2024 Playoffs Spread History
| Date | Opponent | Spread (Mavericks) | Final Score | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2024 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | -3.5 | 109-97 L | L |
| April 23, 2024 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | -2.0 | 96-93 W | W |
| April 26, 2024 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | -4.5 | 101-90 W | W |
| April 28, 2024 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | -7.0 | 116-111 L | L |
| May 1, 2024 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | -2.5 | 123-93 W | W |
| May 3, 2024 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | -8.5 | 114-101 W | W |
| May 7, 2024 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 3.5 | 117-95 L | L |
| May 9, 2024 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 5.0 | 119-110 W | W |
| May 11, 2024 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | -1.5 | 105-101 W | W |
| May 13, 2024 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | -1.5 | 100-96 L | L |
| May 15, 2024 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 4.5 | 104-92 W | W |
| May 18, 2024 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | -3.5 | 117-116 W | L |
| May 22, 2024 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 4.5 | 108-105 W | W |
| May 24, 2024 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 6.0 | 109-108 W | W |
| May 26, 2024 | vs. Minnesota Timberwolves | -1.5 | 116-107 W | W |
| May 28, 2024 | vs. Minnesota Timberwolves | -1.5 | 105-100 L | L |
| May 30, 2024 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 6.0 | 124-103 W | W |
Dallas finished the regular season with the third-best record against the spread at 48-34, right behind the Orlando Magic (51-31) and Philadelphia 76ers (48-33-1). That success has since carried over to the playoffs, with the Mavericks going a league-best 11-6 ATS and covering at a 64.71 percent rate.
The only time Dallas didn't cover after winning SU was in the series finale against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 on the road, prevailing by a single point as the 3.5-point favorites.
The Mavericks have dropped just a single game both SU and ATS as a betting underdog, and that was Game 1 versus Oklahoma City after getting blown out by 22 points at the Paycom Center with the Thunder favored by 3.5 points. Since then, Dallas has gone a perfect 5-0 on both accounts as an underdog, with three of those wins and covers coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals.
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Dallas Mavericks 2024 Playoffs OVER/UNDER History
| Date | Opponent | Final Score | O/U Line | Final Total | O/U Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2024 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 109-97 | 221.5 | 206 | UNDER |
| April 23, 2024 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 96-93 | 215.5 | 189 | UNDER |
| April 26, 2024 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | 101-90 | 213.5 | 191 | UNDER |
| April 28, 2024 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | 116-111 | 209.5 | 227 | OVER |
| May 1, 2024 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 123-93 | 209 | 216 | OVER |
| May 3, 2024 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | 114-101 | 209.5 | 215 | OVER |
| May 7, 2024 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 117-95 | 218.5 | 212 | UNDER |
| May 9, 2024 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 119-110 | 218.5 | 229 | OVER |
| May 11, 2024 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | 105-101 | 217 | 206 | UNDER |
| May 13, 2024 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | 100-96 | 215.5 | 196 | UNDER |
| May 15, 2024 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 104-92 | 213.5 | 196 | UNDER |
| May 18, 2024 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | 117-116 | 208.5 | 233 | OVER |
| May 22, 2024 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 108-105 | 207 | 213 | OVER |
| May 24, 2024 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 109-108 | 207 | 217 | OVER |
| May 26, 2024 | vs. Minnesota Timberwolves | 116-107 | 207.5 | 223 | OVER |
| May 28, 2024 | vs. Minnesota Timberwolves | 105-100 | 211 | 205 | UNDER |
| May 30, 2024 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 124-103 | 209 | 227 | OVER |
Unlike in ATS, the Mavericks' numbers in connecting on the OVER throughout the 2023-24 campaign weren't exactly enticing. Dallas was third from the bottom in the Association going OVER with a record of just 36-46-0, with only the Miami Heat (35-47-0) and reigning champion Denver Nuggets (34-47-1) being worse.
In the postseason, a 4-1 record reaching the OVER against the Timberwolves aided in Dallas getting back over the .500 mark at 9-8-0, which is slightly ahead of Boston at 8-6-0. The Mavericks are averaging 107.94 points per contest while allowing 103.88 points to the opposition for a combined total average of 211.82 points.
Dallas has also split the OVER/UNDER at the American Airlines Center with a 4-4 record in the playoffs, which is essentially the same mark when on the road as well at 5-4.
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Luka Doncic, Points
- After failing to go OVER on the prop line for points scored in eight of his first 10 postseason appearances, Luka Doncic has since exceeded the number in six of his last seven outings, averaging 31.7 points during that span.
- The Mavericks are 7-1 SU during the playoffs when Doncic beats the points prop set by oddsmakers, and 5-4 SU when he doesn't.
- Doncic's player prop for points has been less than 30 on just five occasions, but he toppled the number each time.
Kyrie Irving, Points
- Kyrie Irving is averaging 22.8 points per game this postseason, which is the third-highest mark of his career across seven playoff berths dating back to 2015.
- Irving hit the UNDER on the prop line for points through the first five games of the second round against the Thunder, but has since nailed the OVER in four of his last six appearances.
- Dallas is a perfect 5-0 SU the last five times Irving has beaten his points line.
P.J. Washington, Points
- P.J. Washington hasn't registered consecutive OVERs on his prop line for points since Games 2, 3, and 4 versus Oklahoma City.
- He's failed to score 10 or more points in just two of Dallas' 17 playoff games, with the team still managing to win both matchups SU.
- On the three instances in which Washington dropped 20 or more points, the Mavericks went 2-1 SU and ATS. All of those lines came against the Thunder, and Washington has scored 15 or fewer points in all but one game since.
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