4 Risky Bets To Reconsider For 2024-25 NBA Season

Betting on NBA basketball requires consistent probing and analysis, because being enamored with big names and teams may look great in theory, but finding underlying issues and trends could save you from a world of heartbreak in the long run.

With the 2024-25 regular season getting underway on October 22, here are four futures bets that you should either outright avoid making or proceed with caution prior to putting your money down as they could fizzle out down the road and with good reason.

*betting odds accurate as of October 15, 2024; courtesy of FanDuel

AVOID: Joel Embiid For NBA Most Valuable Player, +2400

The one glaring omission on Joel Embiid's resume is never having hoisted the Larry O'Brien trophy. He's captured a pair of scoring titles, been named to seven All-Star teams, an All-NBA First Team, three All-Defensive Second Teams, and was the league's Most Valuable Player in 2023, yet all of that pales in comparison to what a championship would do for Embiid's legacy.

A quote recently circulated that Embiid doesn't anticipate ever playing back-to-back games again for the remainder of his career in an effort to stay as healthy as humanly possible for long and prosperous playoff runs. With the league recently instituting new criteria for end-of-season hardware which requires players to suit up for at least 65 appearances, the likelihood of the 7-footer reaching that minimum this season and perhaps ever again is looking slimmer and slimmer, therefore removing him from the running for further MVP recognition.

The moment this news emerged, oddsmakers sunk Embiid's MVP odds from 7-to-1 all the way down to 24-to-1. His statistical contributions will always generate immense recognition as Embiid is one of the most dominant centers we've ever had the privilege of watching, but individual accolades no longer satisfy him, and if this is what is required to vault Philadelphia forward, then these are the sacrifices which must be made.

Embiid reportedly texted team president Daryl Morey after the Sixers were eliminated in the opening round by the New York Knicks and said "We got to do whatever it takes to make sure that in the postseason I'm healthy," according to ESPN's Tim Bontemps. A title is the end game for Embiid, and preserving his body so he can endure the trials of postseason basketball with a full health bar is all that really matters anymore.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION: Boston Celtics To Win NBA Championship, +320

The days of championship dynasties being forged and teams stringing together consecutive title reigns has been put on the back burner as of late, as no one has repeated since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18. In fact, the league has crowned a unique champion each of the last six seasons, which is only the second time that's ever happened (1975-80).

The Boston Celtics steamrolled their way to the championship on the back of a 64-18 regular season while dropping just three total games throughout the playoffs. They possessed the strongest offense of all time by averaging 122.2 points per 100 possessions, and became just the fourth team in the last 28 years to rank in the top three both offensively and defensively (h/t NBA.com's John Schuhmann).

Returning their entire roster for another crack at a title rightfully puts the Celtics atop the pack with the strongest odds to win it all again, but there is reason to believe a second-straight championship isn't in the cards. On top of the aforementioned history of unique winners, all three of Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday participated in the 2024 Summer Games, so tired legs may come into play. Championship hangovers can't be underestimated either, as the amount of work and preparation it took to win in the first place can take its toll, while the incentive isn't nearly as strong as it was last season with Boston looking to shut down its naysayers.

With Kristaps Porzingis expected to be out of action for the remainder of the calendar year, and the Eastern Conference getting tougher near the top, Boston's path is littered with obstacles. Paul George joined Philadelphia and the New York Knicks underwent drastic changes by adding Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges.

AVOID: Bronny James' Regular Season Props

No player selected with the 55th overall pick in the draft will be under the microscope and susceptible to as much scrutiny as what Bronny James is set to encounter throughout his rookie year with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Being a part of one of the most storied franchises in all of sports is already one layer of pressure, but being the son of and now teammate to LeBron James takes it to an entirely different level. Expectations will be thrust upon the younger James that he won't be able to meet for quite some time, if ever, barring viewing eyes taking mercy on someone who clearly needs further development and shouldn't be compared his legendary dad.

Season props exist for Bronny scoring over 20 points in a single game (+1000), or recording at least four 3-pointers (+600), or even eight assists (+2000). If you choose to proceed with even sprinkling a touch on any of those futures, then that's your prerogative.

Lightning may strike and a time may come where Bronny is thrust into playing 25-to-30 minutes in what would amount to a meaningless game at the end of the season where the Lakers' fate has been decided and the 20-year-old guard will have the opportunity to shoot to his heart's content. That's the only chance he has for any of these props to connect.

Los Angeles is vying for a playoff berth to maximize LeBron's final years, so giving Bronny a substantial role off the bench doesn't fall in line with said goal. Bronny will presumably also see time in the G League, as well, and that's where most of his year should be spent anyway.

The novelty of seeing Bronny and LeBron on the hardwood together has merit, because it's unprescedented and special for the Lakers organization, the league as a whole, and of course the James family. But once that wears off, reality will set in.

Bronny has the worst plus-minus on the team through four preseason games at -13.3. He's averaging 0.7 points in 11.9 minutes having made just one of his 11 shot attempts, and he's turned the ball over five times in comparison to garnering just a single assist. Bronny is a work in progress, and props like this aren't doing him any favors.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION: Win Total Props For Bottom-Tiered Teams

Like Bart Simpson high on Ritalin singing "Don't Stop" by Fleetwood Mac, a slew of teams are going to get behind the wheel of massive tanks and drive them straight through the regular season with the hope of improving their odds in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.

This goes for a number of teams where the playoffs are either a pipe dream or not beneficial to long-term success, whether it be the Portland Trail Blazers (20.5, -110), Washington Wizards (20.5, -122), Chicago Bulls (28.5, +102), or Toronto Raptors (29.5, -122) just to name a few.

When glancing at win total odds for teams of this ilk, they're arguably the only means towards profiting off of their year. They're not challenging for titles, either league, conference, or division, and the only real value is figuring out what the win-loss column will ultimately look like. If you're using the strength of roster or schedule as a means to project this outcome, that's fine, but you also need to take into account the fact that none of that may mean a lick during the second half of the campaign.

Once the trade deadline rolls through in February, we may see teams make a noticeable effort towards parting ways with contributing pieces to make their respective tanks more efficient. Next summer's class of incoming prospects, whether it be Flagg, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Drake Powell, or Dylan Harper, can potentially alter the trajectory of a franchise with their high ceilings. If front offices have to take a blowtorch to this season to ensure a rookie of that magnitude falls in their lap, you won't see the slightest of hesitation to do so.

Be cognizant of this when searching sportsbooks for specific win totals to invest funds in, because while you may think certain rosters are too talented to completely bottom out, such a mindset can change in a hurry. It will become a battle of who can out-tank the other, and that's going to impact these props in a massive way.