Strike out on day one of March Madness? Don't worry, few of us were on the Oakland Golden Grizzlies as a +600 moneyline underdog. Thankfully for bettors, the glory of the NCAAB Tournament is there's always another game tomorrow.
Tony Farmer, David Caraviello and I will be providing March Madness bets for you all tournament long.
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Nick's Pick: New Mexico -2
Matchup: New Mexico vs Clemson
I’ve been on the Lobos hype train for awhile now. New Mexico is my favorite March Madness Cinderella.
✈️ Donovan Dent ... Liftoff!! #GoLobos #MWMadness
— Lobo Basketball (@UNMLoboMBB) March 13, 2024
📺 MWN pic.twitter.com/KMimh8HixA
The Lobos excel at crashing the offensive glass, forcing opponents into untimely turnovers, and knocking down three-pointers. Rich Pitino's squad has the depth and bucket getting ability to put up points in bunches.On top of that, they allow just 94 points per 100 possessions on defense. New Mexico have covered the spread in five straight games, and look set to destroy the Clemson Tigers.
Nick's Pick: Texas A&M +1
Matchup: Texas A&M vs Nebraska
Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game. The Cornhuskers employ excellent shooters, but they play at pace and don’t rebound the ball particularly well.
On the flip side, Texas A&M is the top offensive rebounding team in the country. Moreover, they play a methodical brand of basketball that projects well to March Madness action. The Aggies are outstanding at crashing the boards and converting second-chance opportunities.
I like Buzz Williams team to turn this game into a rockfight and dominant the Cornhuskers in the paint. Give me the Aggies +1.
Nick's Pick: TCU -4 vs Utah State
Matchup: TCU vs Utah State
Scarborough Ontario's very own Emanuel Miller leads TCU into the NCAA Tournament. The senior's put up 15-plus points in five of his last seven games and went off for 26 against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament. He's joined by Jameer Nelson Jr. and Micah Peavy to form a devastating offensive triumvirate for the Horned Frogs.
shout out to the emanuel miller georgetown shot
— Nick Girimonte (@GirimonteNicky) March 17, 2024
ended up meaning a lot for tcu pic.twitter.com/wRX7x7wFsh
Jamie Dixon's offense puts up nearly 80 points a game on an average of 17 assists per night. On top of that, TCU crashes the glass with abandon, sitting sixth in the country in second-chance conversion percentage. Plus, their aggressive defense forces turnovers in bunches. They're elite at scoring points off of steals (10th in the nation) and at denying opponents any chance at the basket (11th in defensive field goal attempt rate). Look for TCU to runaway with the victory.
David's Pick: New Mexico -2 vs Clemson
Matchup: New Mexico vs Clemson
Another example of botched seeding on the part of the selection committee: an 11 seed being a point spread favorite over a 6. New Mexico owns the third-best cover rate (68%) in the Round of 64 behind Iowa State and South Carolina, and enters the tournament having beaten the spread in six straight. Clemson has lost three of its last four—dropping two of those as favorites, and all of them to teams that didn’t make the tournament—and has covered just once in its last five.
David's Pick: Houston vs Longwood, UNDER 128.5
Matchup: Houston vs Longwood
The Lancers are in for a serious wake-up call against the best defensive team in the nation, one holding opponents to an average of 57 points per game. Houston’s efforts earlier this season against non-power conference foes tell the story: it held Louisiana-Monroe to 31, Towson to 49, Montana to 44, Rice to 39, and Stetson and Dayton teams that made the tournament to 48 and 55, respectively. The Cougars have also gone under the total in five of their last seven.
Tony's Pick: Auburn -12.5 vs Yale
Matchup: Auburn vs Yale
Yale only played two teams ranked in the top 50 at KenPom.com (Kansas and Gonzaga) and both times they lost by 15 points. The Bulldogs feature an inexperienced roster with only one senior starter while Auburn has more senior leadership and played in four NCAA Tournament games the last two season. Auburn features a deep roster (8th highest bench minutes in the country) and can beat Yale a number of ways. The Tigers should also be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting a raw deal from the selection committee with the No. 4 seed in UConn’s region.
Yale does most of its work inside (54.9% of his scoring coming from 2-pointers), but that’s exactly where Auburn excels on defense, holding opponents to 29.8% from the floor on 2-pointers (best in the nation). I expect Yale’s offense to look overwhelmed in this one. Auburn is on a six-game winning streak and five of those victories were vs. KenPom top 90 teams.
Tony's Pick: Marquette -14.5 vs Western Kentucky
Matchup: Marquette vs Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky has a surprisingly good home court advantage and is just 10-9 this season when playing away from home. In February, Western Kentucky lost road games to the 282nd and 285th ranked KenPom teams (Middle Tennessee and FIU). Marquette is simply in a different class than Western Kentucky and with Tyler Kolek returning from injury there should no longer be any doubt they’re one of the best teams in the nation.
The Golden Eagles went 3-3 without Kolek in the lineup, but two of those losses were to No. 1 ranked UConn. Marquette’s ability to beat quality teams (Xavier, Villanova, Providence) away from home without their star player was impressive.
Marquette’s defense, which ranks 17th in steal % and 20th in turnover %, should be able to give the Hilltoppers fits as they’ve been sloppy with the ball this season.
