SMU vs Penn State College Football Playoff Odds & Picks

The biggest game ever between Penn State and SMU was the 1948 Cotton Bowl, where both teams were ranked in the top five and finished in a 13-13 tie. That occasion promises to be eclipsed Dec. 21 when they clash in the opening round in the first-ever College Football Playoff, where the Nittany Lions are an 8.5-point home favorite over the Mustangs.

Both teams are coming off outright losses in their respective conference championship games. Sixth-seeded Penn State fell to Oregon 45-37 in the Big 10, failing to cover as a 3-point underdog. No. 11 seed SMU lost in the ACC to 2.5-point underdog Clemson, which won 34-31 on a last-second field goal. The Mustangs covered in seven of their last nine regular-season games, winning twice over that stretch as an underdog (to TCU and Louisville).

SMU vs Penn State Odds - College football playoff first round

SMU vs Penn State, Dec 21, 12:00 pm ET

SMU vs Penn State Odds Tonight
Teams	Spread	Moneyline	Total
SMU	+8.5 (-108)	+250	O53.5 (-114)
Penn State	-8.5 (-112)	-315	U53.5 (-106)

SMU vs Penn State Picks—College Football Playoff

Penn State’s approach is as elementary as its white helmets. The Nittany Lions grind down opponents with a punishing run game and then smother them with a relentless pass rush. The strategy is tried-and-true, and it kept Penn State in games against a pair of top-five opponents that it ultimately lost—20-13 to 3-point favorite Ohio State, and 45-37 to three-point favorite Oregon.

Here's the thing, though—the Nittany Lions, who play in a league full of rigid, pro-style quarterbacks, haven’t seen anything like SMU’s Kevin Jennings. He can run, he can throw, he can throw on the run. He passed for 310 yards and three TDs and ran for another score in rallying SMU from 21-7 down against Clemson. Jennings is capable of being spectacular, and that’s what it will take for the Mustangs to stay in this game.

SMU’s offense allows just over one sack per game, further evidence of Jennings’ elusiveness. Yeah, it’s going to be rocking in State College. Sure, it’s going to be cold. But the Mustangs will have the game’s most dynamic player behind center, and Jennings is more than capable of forcing the Nittany Lions out of their comfort zone.

SMU vs Penn State College Football Playoff Pick: SMU +8.5

Penn State went OVER in each of the final four games of the regular season because it laid waste to the dregs of the Big 10. Against the two best teams to visit State College, Illinois and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions went UNDER. Expect this to be a cold, tight game where one play could make the difference.

SMU vs Penn State College Football Playoff Pick: UNDER 54

SMU vs Penn State News

Penn State safety Kevin Winston, who’s been out with an injury since the season’s second game, will not return for the playoff, coach James Franklin told reporters recently. Likewise, SMU’s most notable injuries are largely to players who have been out for most of the season—like wide receiver Jake Bailey (undisclosed), running back Zane Minors (lower body) and cornerback A.J. Davis (head).

SMU vs Penn State Prop Bet: Tyler Warren Anytime TD, -150

Penn State’s tight end is one of the more versatile players in the country, which Warren has shown by recording 10 touchdowns on the season—six receiving, and four rushing. While he should probably see a few more touches for a player of his caliber, Warren is arguably the biggest scoring threat on the field whenever the Nittany Lions are near the goal line.