There was no debate that undefeated Oregon would play in the Big Ten Championship, now the Ducks offense is threatened by Penn State's stingy defense. FanDuel is offering Oregon as cautious 3.5-point favorites on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Oregon, the final spotless team in the nation, is eyeing its first Big Ten title. Dan Lanning's crew has a 29-point margin of victory but with Penn State's top-five defense lining up on the other side of the ball, it's time to see just how deep that offensive talent goes.
Penn state vs oregon Odds
Matchup Page: Penn State vs Oregon, 8:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State Nittany Lions | +3.5 (-110) | +140 | OVER 49.5 (-115) |
| Oregon Ducks | -3.5 (-110) | -170 | UNDER 49.5 (-105) |
Odds as of December 3 from FanDuel
Penn state vs oregon Picks – Week 15, big ten championship
Penn State is counting its blessings, earning a spot in the conference title game after Ohio State's devastating upset to Michigan during Rivalry Week. So, Oregon's toughest battle awaits. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 266 total yards per game, solid enough to plant themselves as fourth-best in Division 1.
I've credited the Ducks' arsenal of offensive weapons, Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart combining for over 1,200 and 14 touchdowns in the wide receiver room while Jordan James carries the backfield with 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns. Dillon Gabriel's 73.5 completion percentage is the third-best, but it's easy to be precise with three elite options sitting in the Big Ten's top 25 receiver leaderboards. But, it won't be that easy this weekend.
The one silver lining for the Ducks is that the Big Ten Championship is held on a neutral field, of course. James Franklin's defense is significantly weaker this season when away from their home field, allowing over 20 extra rushing yards (109.4 YPG) and 50 passing yards (198 YPG) on average during away games compared to matches held at Beaver Stadium this season.
Do I think the Ducks will win? Yes. But, that 32-31 victory over Ohio State, its toughest outing to date, has me backing away from the 3.5-point spread. Oregon’s last eight games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams went UNDER and I can confidently predict that Penn State's defense will be in full force.
Penn State vs Oregon Week 15 Pick: UNDER 49.5 Points (-105)
*picks made as of Tuesday, December 3 at 2:30 pm ET
Penn state vs oregon News
Missing a couple of weeks with a shoulder injury, Oregon thankfully got its leading receiver back in Week 14. Tez Johnson got warmed up against Washington, carefully snagging three catches for 36 yards and one touchdown. I suspect Lanning didn't want to get the senior involved in too much action to limit the risk of further injury. But, his 687 yards and nine touchdowns were missed by Oregon's offense. Dillon Gabriel admitted, "we need him", following Johnson's return.
Penn state vs oregon Prop Bet: Noah Whittington OVER 20.5 rushing yards (-115)
I've blatantly alluded to the fact that the defense is going to be a nightmare in this tilt. But, the Ducks' well-rounded offense will need to adjust. As the second running back leader, whose 455 yards don't compete with Jordan James' near 1,200, I'm banking on Whittington not being as suffocatingly covered. According to Outlier, the junior is averaging double what his line is set at for the Big Ten Championship.
Penn state vs oregon Betting Trends
- Penn State is 0-7 ATS (0.0%) in its last 7 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses
- The OVER hit in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses
- The UNDER hit in 6 of Oregon’s last 8 games as the favorite
