Auburn vs Alabama Odds and Picks Week 14: Alabama Continues Iron Bowl Dominance

Within the confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Auburn Tigers historically become toothless and declawed. Their past six trips to Tuscaloosa to face rival Alabama have resulted in losses by 22, 29, 31, 18, 11, and 49 points. No wonder, then, that the Crimson Tide are 11.5-point favorites Saturday, in a stadium where Auburn has been only marginally competitive since its most recent victory there in 2010.

But it wouldn’t be the Iron Bowl without a little intrigue, which is certainly what we have this week. Alabama is coming off a stunning blowout loss at 14-point underdog Oklahoma, which likely knocked it out of the College Football Playoff picture. Auburn outlasted 2.5-point road favorite Texas A&M in four overtimes to win for the third time in four games. No wonder the point spread for the 89th Iron Bowl has been bet down after opening at Alabama -14.5.

Auburn vs Alabama Odds - Week 14

Matchup Page: Auburn vs Alabama, November 30, 3:30 pm ET

Odds as of November 25 at bet365

Auburn vs Alabama Picks - Week 14

The Crimson Tide have been maddening to sports bettors, looking overwhelming one moment and then bored and distracted the next—sometimes even in the span of the same game. Beat Georgia, and then lose to Vanderbilt? Hammer LSU, and then lose at Oklahoma? Dominate Missouri, but nearly lose to South Carolina at home? The Tide have covered just twice in their last six FBS games, with three of those four ATS defeats coming against double-digit spreads.

Then there’s Auburn, which looked offensively anemic in starting 2-5, not recording an SEC victory until the final days of October. The Tigers snapped that skid against Kentucky, but then managed all of seven points in a loss to Vanderbilt the following week. The 43-41 victory over Texas A&M seemed to come out of nowhere, and certainly makes you wonder if the Tigers found something that will carry over to the Iron Bowl this week.

This is such a vexing game to bet. Alabama has been Jekyll-and-Hyde, Auburn looked punchless until last weekend. We’re putting our faith in Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Alabama is 4-2 ATS this season—not great, but certainly better than its 2-3 ATS mark away from home. And Tuscaloosa has been an absolute house of horrors for Auburn, which last won there with Cam Newton at quarterback, and hasn’t been within single digits since.

Auburn vs Alabama Week 14 Pick: Alabama -11.5

Alabama, content to put the ball in the hands of quarterback Jalen Milroe and let him run all over the place, has gone UNDER the total in four of its last five. It’s a similar situation for Auburn, which is very content to grind out yards behind running back Jarquez Hunter, and has gone UNDER in four of its last six. Those trends speak for themselves, especially given that the Tigers haven’t seen a total this high since Week 4.

Auburn vs Alabama Week 14 Pick: UNDER 52

Auburn vs Alabama News

Crimson Tide starting linebacker Deonte Lawson went out with a leg injury against Oklahoma, and his availability for the Auburn game is unknown. Alabama also played last week without starting safety Keon Sabb, out the remainder of the season with a broken foot. Auburn safety Caleb Wooden has not played since the Vanderbilt game due to an undisclosed injury, while receiver Caleb Burton has reportedly been out due to a concussion.

Auburn vs Alabama Prop Bet: Jarquez Hunter Anytime TD (-115)

The most underrated great player in the SEC, Hunter gashed Texas A&M last week for 130 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries. Auburn will feed him the ball all day, as it showed against Kentucky when Hunter carried 23 times for 278 yards. Alabama’s rush defense ranks 12th in the SEC, allowing 143 yards per game, so expect the Tigers to hand Hunter the ball and dare the Tide to stop him.

Auburn vs Alabama Betting Trends