Another College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup is set as Penn State and Boise State will meet in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve. Opening odds at FanDuel are favoring the Nittany Lions as 10.5-points against the Broncos at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Penn State silenced the doubters in the first-round of the CFP, earning an early lead against SMU and never giving them the chance to catch up.
Penn State Vs Boise State Odds
Matchup Page: Penn State vs Boise State, Dec. 31, 7:30 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State Nittany Lions | -10.5 (-110) | -410 | OVER 53.5 (-110) |
| Boise State Broncos | +10.5 (-110) | +315 | UNDER 53.5 (-110) |
Odds as of December 21 from FanDuel
Penn State Vs Boise State Picks – CFP Fiesta bowl
Well, I can't keep poking fun at James Franklin's tendency to choke in big games at the moment. Ahead of his first-round meeting, in his 11 seasons as a head coach with Penn State, he was 12-18 ATS and 5-25 SU vs top 15-ranked schools. He hadn't defeated or covered vs a top 15-ranked school since January 2022.
Not anymore.
The Nittany Lions absolutely dominated the SMU Mustangs, leading 28-0 at halftime. But I will admit, Kevin Jennings three interceptions, two of which were pick-six's, didn't help SMU's case.
It's true that Boise State is a one-man show, carried by Heisman Trophy runner-up, Ashton Jeanty and his nearly 2,500 rushing yards. The Broncos are 3-5-1 ATS when facing a double-digit spread, but did cover their sole 'dog spread vs Oregon.
I'm basing this pick solely off that tight matchup against Oregon, where Boise State barely fell 37-34. That was arguably Spencer Danielson's toughest feat and he held his own against a group that is still undefeated.
At a neutral site and with the adrenaline of the College Football Playoff, I'll tread lightly on this double-digit spread.
Penn State Vs Boise State Pick: Boise State +10.5 (-110)
*picks made as of Saturday, December 21 at 4:30 pm ET
Penn State Vs Boise State News
Well, the big news ahead of the Sugar Bowl is hard to ignore. Carson Beck is currently exploring surgical options for his elbow injury that is nearly guaranteed to keep him sidelined for the CFP meeting. The senior was hurt after attempting a Hail Mary toss in the SEC Championship vs Texas.
While it's yet to be confirmed, I can assume Gunner Stockton will replace Beck. The sophomore stepped in against the Longhorns to throw for 71 yards and an interception. While Stockton has the luxury of a few weeks to prepare and develop for his first playoff appearance, the nerves will be hard to settle.
Penn State Vs Boise State Prop Bet: Ashton Jeanty anytime tD
I don't think it'll be easy against Penn State's top 10 rushing defense, but Ashton Jeanty is all Boise State has. The junior has recorded a touchdown in all but one meeting this season, which was randomly against Portland State. But his 29 touchdowns make up over 50% of his team's scores this year.
The ball is bound to get into his hands. If Boise State has any chance of advancing to the semi-finals, Jeanty will need to be capitalizing on his chances and help the Broncos get on the scoreboard.
Penn State Vs Boise State Betting Trends
- Boise State have only been underdogs once this season, Week 2 vs Oregon (+18.0). They covered the spread
- Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games and are 3-1 ATS when double-digit favorites
- The UNDER has hit in four of Boise State's last five games
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