Western Kentucky vs James Madison Boca Raton Bowl Odds & Picks: Total Falls Below 50 Points

On Wednesday night, college football bowl season rolls on as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) face the James Madison Dukes (8-4) in the Boca Raton Bowl. Can the Hilltoppers bounce back after a disappointing loss in the C-USA Championship? Or will the Dukes win their first bowl game as an FBS program? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Odds

Matchup Page: Western Kentucky vs James Madison, December 18, 5:30 pm ET

Odds as of December 18 at FanDuel

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Picks

Under 49.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel

James Madison is favored by 6.5 points in this game despite being without star quarterback Alzona Barnett II. After an impressive season with 26 passing touchdowns and just four interceptions, he seemingly suffered a knee injury on the final play of the regular season against Marshall. With Barnett out, the Dukes will turn to senior Billy Atkins, who has just 59 pass attempts in four years with the program.

Expect the Dukes to lean on their excellent defense in this matchup. James Madison ranks seventh in defensive EPA/play and third in defensive success rate this season. That defense will match up with Western Kentucky’s pass-happy offense led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp. While Veltkamp is in the transfer portal, he confirmed he’ll play in this game.

Veltkamp finished this season with 2,806 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’ll face a James Madison defense ranked 25th in PFF’s coverage grades, and he could be without second-leading receiver Easton Messer, who finished with 725 yards and is currently in the transfer portal. The Hilltoppers could also be without left tackle Travon Taylor, who missed the conference championship game with an injury.

Western Kentucky has a slew of players in the transfer portal. However, head coach Tyson Helton has a history of players in the portal still playing in bowl games, complicating matters from a handicapping standpoint. Starting defensive tackle Hosea Wheeler will likely be out after committing to Indiana. Nickelback Upton Stout, a critical run defender, could also opt out as an NFL Draft prospect.

Ultimately, James Madison’s approach should dictate terms in this game. The Dukes will lean on their run game, leading to the clock running and slower, methodical drives against a Hilltoppers defense that has bled production on the ground. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers will encounter difficulty against a stout Dukes' pass defense. The under looks like the best play given what we know here.

Western Kentucky vs James Madison Player Prop

George Pettaway Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at bet365

With Alonza Barnett III out for the game with an injury, James Madison will turn to Billy Atkins at quarterback. Atkins has only attempted 59 career passes at the college level, so you can expect a run-heavy approach. Sophomore back George Pettaway is a talented runner who averaged 6.0 YPC this year. Western Kentucky ranked 109th in EPA/rush allowed and 122nd in rushing success rate allowed, and with James Madison favored by 7.5 points, Pettaway will have a runway for success in this game.

Western Kentucky vs James Madison Betting Trends