You know it's the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs when the Vegas Golden Knights core of LTIR players come back from the dead like a zombie apocalypse. After months on the shelf, Mark Stone is back as is Tomas Hertl! It's playoffs, baby!
Now Vegas gets a first-round matchup with the Dallas Stars. The team that won both the West and the Central division.
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Stars vs Golden Knights playoff series odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | +135 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | -155 |
Odds as of April 24
The odds wouldn't normally be this close for the top seed against the bottom seed. The playoffs are designed to give the Stars the easiest matchup as a reward for being so good in the regular season. Instead, they get the defending Stanley Cup champs with a convenient bout of health.
You'll see a bit later that Vegas won this matchup with a 3-0SU record this year. So there's a lot to worry about for the Stars.
| Series Score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Golden Knights 4-2 | +360 |
| Stars 4-3 | +400 |
| Golden Knights 4-1 | +450 |
| Golden Knights 4-3 | +550 |
| Stars 4-2 | +600 |
| Golden Knights 4-0 | +650 |
| Stars 4-1 | +1000 |
Odds as of April 24
These two teams have met twice in the playoffs already. Vegas lost to Dallas (in five games) back in 2020 and then defeated them (in six games) on their way to the Cup in 2023.
You'll see later that rarely do these sides blow each other out of the water. Eight of the last 10 meetings have been decided by a single goal. Just like how these teams have kept the score close, the series stays close too.
Stars vs Golden Knights betting results
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 9, 2023 | Stars (-115) | Golden Knights (-105) | 6-1 Golden Knights | 6.0 (O) |
| November 22, 2023 | Stars (-135) | Golden Knights (+115) | 2-1 Golden Knights | 6.0 (U) |
| October 17, 2023 | Golden Knights (-105) | Stars (-115) | 3-2 Golden Knights | 5.5 (U) |
Based on these recent results, Vegas owns the Stars. So I get if you're looking at that, and the Knights' new bout of health, and think Vegas wins.
But look, Dallas has a lot going for it. They've got incredible depth with 70% of their goals outside of their top 3 players, the third-best overall offense, eighth-best overall defense, a 24.2% power play and an 82% efficiency penalty kill.
To me, Dallas wins.
Stars vs Golden Knights - Notable Player Performances
Jake Oettinger: The Otter has been a delight for the Stars against these Golden Knights. In the last two seasons, Jake holds a 3-1-2 record but a 0.924SV% and 2.08GAA. Dallas is going to lean on their starting goalie to get them through this series.
Ideally, they don't get the Otter from Dallas's 2023 series against Vegas where he averaged a 0.877SV% and 3.84GAA.
Jamie Benn: We haven't seen a ton of scoring in this matchup over the past two regular seasons, but Stars captain Jamie Benn leads the way with four points in six games.
Jonathan Marchessault: In the playoffs last year Marchessault put up a masterful performance earning the Conn Smythe. Against the Stars, March-y scores a ridiculous four goals and seven points in six games. Vegas will look for him to do it again.
Stars vs Golden Knights playoff series expert pick: Stars (-140)
I get that Vegas has won the last three meetings with Dallas, and (as I've said a stupid number of times now) they're getting healthy again. But I can't bring myself to believe they'll win this series.
Dallas has the right combination of everything (offense, defense, special teams and goaltending).
Don't forget that Dallas is entering the post-season on a hell of a heater with a 12-2-0 record and a +26 goal differential. They aren't just winning they're whipping the floor with teams. That's going to be too much for a Vegas team hoping their injuries change everything.
Stars vs Golden Knights betting results last 10 meetings
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 9, 2023 | Stars (-115) | Golden Knights (-105) | 6-1 Golden Knights | 6.0 (O) |
| November 22, 2023 | Stars (-135) | Golden Knights (+115) | 2-1 Golden Knights | 6.0 (U) |
| October 17, 2023 | Golden Knights (-105) | Stars (-115) | 3-2 Golden Knights | 5.5 (U) |
| April 8, 2023 | Stars (-165) | Golden Knights (+145) | 2-1 Stars | 6.0 (U) |
| February 25, 2023 | Golden Knights (-120) | Stars (+100) | 3-2 Stars | 5.5 (U) |
| January 16, 2023 | Golden Knights (-115) | Stars (-105) | 4-0 Stars | 6.0 (U) |
| April 26, 2022 | Stars (-110) | Golden Knights (-110) | 3-2 Stars | 5.5 (U) |
| December 8, 2021 | Golden Knights (-145) | Stars (+125) | 5-4 Golden Knights | 5.5 (O) |
| October 27, 2021 | Stars (-170) | Golden Knights (+150) | 3-2 Golden Knights | 5.5 (U) |
| December 13, 2019 | Stars (-165) | Golden Knights (+145) | 3-2 Golden Knights | 5.5 (U) |
As you bet on this series it's a safe bet to look at the UNDER. It's hit eight times in the last 10 games. Add last year's playoff series to the mix and the UNDER is 11-5 (69%).
