The Great Chase is on, with 21 goals on the year, Alex Ovechkin is only 21 goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky's goal-scoring record. When can we expect the Great 8 to break the Great One's record?
Full transparency, I didn't believe Ovi would ever break the record. And I held that belief as late as last season. Here's the video to prove it!
I thought he'd never break the record after opening the 23-24 season with eight goals in 43 games. Ovechkin heard that and ended the year scoring 31 goals and making me eat crow. With those 31 goals in 2023-24, the question is no longer if Ovechkin could break Gretzky's record, but when? Will it be this season?
When Will Ovechkin Break Gretzky's Record
Ovechkin's 21 goals in 31 games put his scoring pace at 0.68 goals per game, the math says he needs 35 games to score another 21 goals. That's exactly the number of games left in Washington's season, begging the question: "Will he break the record this year?"
Books don't think he'll do so this year giving the likelihood he'll break the record in 24-25 +240 odds, or a 29% implied chance, while breaking the record after this season is getting -333 odds, or a 77% implied chance.
| Odds | |
|---|---|
| Yes | +240 |
| No | -333 |
Odds as of January 23 at Sportsbook
But look, much like Sauron hunting for the One Ring, Ovechkin, and the Capitals are seeking the goal-scoring record, all their thought is bent on it happening this year. Who says Ovi can't get the record in less than 35 games?
We're right around the time last year when Ovechkin went off scoring in six straight games, the Great 8 could still hit another gear. He still has to play the Penguins and Flyers twice more this year, that's two teams in the bottom five for goals against per game (3.59 and 3.30 respectively), and he still has to play Winnipeg twice, a team he's scored on 55 times in 73 games (his third-best scoring efficiency for opponents faced). Ovi has the time and opportunity to pile up goals before this year is over and clinch the record.
Profiting From Ovechkin's Record-Setting Chase
While Ovi marches his way to the record books we as bettors can make some money along the way.
By scoring 0.68 goals per game, an Ovechkin anytime goal has to be an auto-play. You're guaranteed to find good odds on Ovi to score. Against the Kraken tonight, Ovi holds +125 odds for an anytime goal from Sportsbook. That's a possible $12.50 payout on a $10 bet backing the game's greatest goalscorer. Outstanding value.
Ovechkin Shot Props
As Gretzky said himself, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, and Ovechkin is taking that to heart as he tries to break 99's record Ovi has stepped up his shooting game. He now has 110 shots on goal in 31 games, an average of 3.6 per game.
Again, Ovechkin knows he must pepper the net with shots to break the record. So it's not just his anytime goal odds you've got to look out for, watch his shot props too.
Ovi's shot prop line tonight against the Kraken is set at 3.5 shots with OVER getting +125 odds while the UNDER is at -175. Since coming back from injury Ovi is averaging 3.6 shots on net, his opponents tonight, the Seattle Kraken, have allowed the 10th most shots in the league's last 10 games so Ovechkin should get enough looks to push his shot total above three tonight hitting on those +125 odds.
