With 868 career goals, Ovechkin only needs 27 more to pass Wayne Gretzky's record of 894 and cement himself as the greatest scorer of all time, a record he'd already have if not for two lockouts and two COVID-shortened seasons.
A year ago I believed Ovechkin was cooked after eight goals in 43 games saying he'd never break the Great One's record, Ovi obviously saw my video and took it personally because he scored in six straight games after it went up. Ovechkin ended that year with 31 goals, meaning Gretzky's record was no longer safe (nor was my face from humble pies).
The question is no longer if Ovechkin will pass Gretzky's record but when?
When Will Ovechkin Break Gretzky's Record
When the 24-25 seasons began Ovechkin needed 42 goals to pass Gretzky, books did believe he'd get to 40 placing his goal total on the season at 29.5 with -110 odds either way. So the likelihood of Ovechkin getting the record this year wasn't as guaranteed as it is now.
| OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|
| 29.5 (-110) | 29.5 (-110) |
Odds as of August 16
However, with 15 goals through 18 games, Ovi is on pace for 68 goals a career high for the Great 8. With that type of pace, Ovechkin will comfortably break the record this season. Or at least he would have.
That was until an awkward collision with Jake McBain put Ovechkin on the injured list for four to six weeks. That injury should have kept him out of the lineup till the New Year, but based on comments from head coach and Jack Adams favorite Spencer Carbery, Ovie could suit up within days.
Spencer Carbery said there’s a chance Alex Ovechkin could play Sunday or Monday. Won’t play tomorrow, hasn’t been cleared for contact yet, but he’s getting close. Could be before the Christmas break
— Bailey Johnson (@BaileyAJohnson_) December 19, 2024
Assuming he comes back in the same form he was in before the injury scoring 0.83 goals per game the math says Ovi will break Gretzky's record around early to mid-March. The Caps visit the Rangers on March 5th, how sweet would it be for Ovi to break the record at MSG where The Great One ended his career?
Alex Ovechkin Shot Prop Profits
With 0.83 goals per game on the season, you had to be betting on an Ovi anytime goal every time he hit the ice before the injury, but if you're looking for another option than simply betting on his goal prop, you should consider his shot prop.
When Ovechkin returns he'll do everything he can to pick up where he left off in the chase for the record, and that starts with tossing a ton of shots on goal.
Ovechkin had gone OVER 3.5 shots in seven of his last nine games and could have made it eight for nine if he finished the game against Utah. So watch for Ovie's shot prop when he returns and smash the OVER on any line that's at 3.5 shots or lower.
