Canadian Election Odds: Liberals Could Win Surprise Majority

Canadian election odds continue to see Mark Carney's Liberals as massive favorites over the once-favored Conservatives. The Liberals' odds have shifted positively for Carney, up to -250 from -225 two days ago at Sportsbook. Those commanding odds could see them win a surprising majority.

The Conservative Party holds +200 odds to retake power for the first time since 2015, but to win, they'll need help from the NDP and the Bloc Québécois.

Canada Election Odds: Winning Party

Odds as of April 16 at Sportsbook

Canadian Odds Favorite: Liberal Party of Canada (-225)

Say what you will about all of the issues facing Canada, from affordability to the environment, but this election is a single-issue election: Donald Trump. Canadians want a PM who will protect the sovereignty of their country and their livelihood from the American President. 

CANADIAN REPORTER: President Trump's tone on Canada has shifted. He stopped talking about Canada becoming the 51st state, at least publicly.

LEAVITT: I would reject that the president's position on Canada has shifted. Perhaps he just hasn't been asked about Canada. He believes… pic.twitter.com/ZCcZi01ow0

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 15, 2025

A test that Mark Carney is passing. On April 2, Donald Trump's administration levied "retaliatory" tariffs on every country, including one inhabited by only Penguins; Canada was surprisingly exempt. Carney held talks with Trump just days prior, talks that both parties said were "productive". The optics of "productive" talks followed up by being spared from further tariffs have not been lost on the Canadian public.

The CBC's poll tracker has the Liberals six points up on the Conservatives and leaning towards a projected majority. Sportsbook bet365 gives -125 odds for the Liberal Party to win between 160 and 179 seats in the election. A party needs 171 seats to win a majority government. The same CBC poll tracker suggests the Liberals could win 198 seats, the largest win since Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives won 211 seats in 1984.

Odds as of April 16 at Sportsbook 

Canadian Election Odds Value Pick: Conservative Party

Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives are seeing the consequences of a weak NDP Bloc Québécois. Specifically, the NDP.

Since Trudeau's departure, the NDP has been polling at single-digit levels, something unseen since the 1990s. Latest polls show the NDP lost 0.4% support to sit at 8.2%. An Angus Reid survey from March found that 50% of NDP voters from 2021 plan on switching to the Liberals for this election. The left's rally to the Liberal banner has turned the Conservatives' -2000 odds to win to +175 today.

The Tories have decent policy proposals, such as cutting the GST for first-time homebuyers, increasing spending on NATO, and increasing TFSA contribution limits by $5,000.

While these policies are good, voters don't care to hear them. No one can afford a down payment on a new house, let alone the GST. NATO spending is crucial to global stability, but there's a lot of instability here that Canadians are more worried about. And who has $5,000 burning such a big hole in their pocket that they need a new investment vehicle?

Again, these policies are good, but they do nothing to address Donald Trump's attacks on our sovereignty or his tariff threats. These promises are also nearly identical to what the Liberals have promised (whether the Conservatives made these promises first doesn't matter).

Odds as of April 16 at Sportsbook 

If Poilievre and his Conservatives can use these final two weeks of the campaign to show Canadians he's got the answer to Donald Trump, and see the Bloc and NDP regain their voters, perhaps he can flip the script back in his favor.