Canadian Election Odds: Freeland Resignation Brings Up Possible Early Election

The Canadian Political sphere was thrown into turmoil on Monday, December 16 with the shock resignation of Liberal Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. Her resignation from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's cabinet brings up a real possibility of an early election where a changing of the guards is expected to take place.

Canadian Election odds favor the Conservative Party to win the 45th Federal Election with -200 odds or a whopping 95% implied chance, and Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party with long +800 odds.

Canada Election Odds: Winning Party

Odds as of December 16 at Sports Interaction

Canadian Election Odds Favorites: Conservatives

Based on polls, Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party holds a massive 21-point lead over Justin Trudeau's Liberals. Should these poll numbers bear fruit in the next Canadian election Poilievre's Conservatives would win a clear majority in the House of Commons, something the Cons haven't had since 2015.

Much of this Conservative's 21-point lead has to do with the fatigue surrounding Liberal leader Justin Trudeau's leadership after being in charge for over nine years. There is considerable fatigue for the long-serving Prime Minister who's been in power through some significant blunders and crises:

The Conservatives have formed the opposition to Trudeau's government since 2015 and have been bidding their time to strike and take him down, in the last few months Poilievre's Conservative party has tabled three confidence motions (losing all three) and now with Freeland's resignation and pure chaos on Parliament Hill, they believe their time is nearing.

Justin Trudeau's political time as PM has been long enough to see himself become the villain and it's boosting the Conservatives' chances of winning the next election.

Canadian Odds Value Pick: Liberal Party of Canada (+800)

As an NDP supporter for years, it pains me to say this, but it drips with truth, the only reasonable value pick for the winner of the 45th Canadian Election is the Liberal Party of Canada.

But there's a big if attached to that value pick; if the Liberals can appoint a capable leader, not named Trudeau, who can communicate and reach Canadians, they might stand a chance at winning the next election and forming the next government. With the right leader, the Liberals have the political infrastructure to raise large sums of money and to mount a successful federal campaign.

Who that leader is remains to be seen at the time of writing which justifies the Liberals' long +800 odds of winning the next election.

Can A Third Party Win The Next Federal Election?

The New Democratic Party of Canada is the only likely option as a third party to win but their +2500 odds show they hold a minuscule 4% implied odds to win.

The NDP has a few policy wins they can bank on going into the next election, namely pushing the Liberals to commit $13 billion to Dental Care over five years, Pharmacare for universal drug coverage like insulin, pushing for $10 child-care across the provinces, anti-scab protection for federal employees, as well as the housing accelerator fund and giving federal employees a minimum of 10 sick days.

That's a lot of good programs that can help a lot of people but these were measures implemented by the Liberals and not directly by the NDP so it's hard to see if Canadians will discern that nuance when it comes to casting their votes and thus murkying the water further for the NDP.