Just about every week the Premier League features an early kick-off. The early start is either at 7 or 7:30 a.m. Eastern. How can we bet on these early games?
This week it's a mouthwatering tilt between Manchester City and Liverpool. A duel between two giants in the league.
Premier League Early Kick-Off Odds: Manchester City vs Liverpool
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | -0.5 (-155) | -145 | O3.5 (+120) |
| Liverpool | +0.5 (+110) | +330 | U3.5 (-160) |
| Draw | +330 |
Odds as of November 21
Injuries could decide this tie. But at the time of writing, we aren't sure who's in and who's out. Both teams have a long list of players who picked up some sort of knock on international duty. So let's not focus too much on injuries until we know for sure who's available or not.
Our report (see below), says to back the favorite. The fav is 6-3 and +1.17 units on the year. And if not for a meltdown in injury time by the Spurs, the favs record is 6-2 and +3.32 units right now.
In 52 matches between these two teams, 82% of the wins took place at home. Last year, City won 4-1 at the Etihad while the Reds won 1-0 in the reverse fixture at Anfield.
As a Liverpool fan, it pains me to back City for the win here.
Premier League Early Kick-Off Trends
| Betting Market | Record | Profits (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 4-5 | -0.44 |
| Away Teams | 4-5 | +1.64 |
| Favorite | 6-3 | +1.17 |
| Dogs | 3-6 | -1.30 |
| OVER | 4-5 | -0.84 |
Do not, I repeat, do not bet on the underdog. Unless you're coming back from the future. They've lost six of eight contests this season. The one win they have to their name is thanks to Brentford beating Chelsea 2-0.
If Chelsea had a striker they'd have likely won. The Blues held 69% of possession and 71% of the shots towards the goal. And even generated 1.9 xG. The fact they scored none proves they need a finisher up top.
When it comes to the early game I'm backing the favorite even if the profit margin is low. Blind betting every favorite - whose SU line is somewhere between -300 and -133 - would have netted you +1.17 units so far this year. The profits are low game-over-game, but they add up as the season has progressed.
Premier League Early Kickoff: Team Reports
We've picked up game data from the last five Premier League seasons for every early game. Here's what the data shows for their overall record as well as how that breaks down at home and away.
| Team | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 13-4-6 | 6-0-1 | 7-4-5 |
| Aston Villa | 8-0-5 | 4-0-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Bournemouth | 2-0-4 | 2-0-2 | 0-0-2 |
| Brentford | 4-1-1 | 0-1-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Brighton | 5-3-7 | 2-3-3 | 3-0-4 |
| Burnley | 3-3-10 | 1-3-3 | 2-0-7 |
| Chelsea | 10-7-7 | 6-1-4 | 4-6-3 |
| Crystal Palace | 5-3-7 | 3-2-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Everton | 7-6-8 | 6-3-4 | 1-3-4 |
| Fulham | 1-5-6 | 1-3-4 | 0-2-2 |
| Liverpool | 16-6-4 | 7-2-0 | 9-4-4 |
| Luton Town | 0-0-1 | 0-0-1 | 0-0-0 |
| Manchester City | 15-3-3 | 9-0-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-4 | 3-2-1 | 5-3-3 |
| Newcastle | 3-6-9 | 1-1-3 | 2-5-6 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-0-1 | 1-0-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Sheffield United | 0-4-3 | 0-2-2 | 0-2-1 |
| Tottenham | 14-3-15 | 7-1-5 | 7-2-10 |
| West Ham | 7-3-6 | 4-3-2 | 3-0-4 |
| Wolves | 6-2-9 | 4-1-7 | 2-1-2 |
Fulham stinks in early games with a 1-5-6 overall record (0.67 points per game). Only Sheffield (0-3-3) is worse in terms of points-per-game at 0.5 to Fulham's 0.67. But the Blades have half the game time Fulham does.
Everton drops a point per game the second they step away from Goodison Park. On their pitch, the Toffees are picking up 1.62 points per game, but that drops to 0.75 on the road.
City are as dominant as you'd expect. The Blue side of Manchester is picking up 2.3 points per game overall in early games.
