The Topuria vs Holloway odds are about what you'd expect.
Ilia Topuria defends his UFC featherweight title as a -250 betting favorite over challenger Max Holloway (+200 underdog) at UFC 308 on October 26 in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Both fighters carry very high stock into this fight, and the odds are wider than many folks expected. Here are our Topuria vs Holloway odds, best bets, and a full preview.
Topuria vs Holloway Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | -250 |
| Max Holloway | +200 |
Odds as of October 9
Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Topuria's -250 odds (71.43% implied chance) pays out $140. The same $100 on Holloway at +200 (33.33% implied chance) pays out $300.
How To Bet Topuria
The young Spaniard put on a show at UFC 298, marching Alex Volkanovski down and unloading on him with his famous five-punch combo to score the knockout. While it's hard to evaluate Volk's chin at this point, Topuria's power and pure boxing talents cannot be denied. He's a tough matchup for any fighter, Holloway included.
Betting Topuria SU is fine, though that may change as his chalk status grows. At that value, you can be okay with him scoring a surprise KO or taking it the distance. "El Matador" clearly has the power to put anyone out, but it's unlikely he breaks Holloway's legendary chin. "Blessed" has never suffered a KO loss in 33 pro MMA fights, and that includes a trilogy vs Volkanovski.
Ilia is stronger and more dangerous than Max. Topuria also showed (in his Josh Emmett fight) he can handle 25 minutes of high intensity. We'll see if Max pushes him backward in this title fight, but I doubt Topuria will find himself on the defensive for very long.
How To Bet Holloway
Yes, Holloway delivered arguably the greatest KO in UFC history at the promotion's crown jewel UFC 300 event in April, but that doesn't mean he suddenly has boatloads of power. In truth, the Hawaiian probably doesn't have enough juice to roll through Topuria with a standard combo. He'd have to hit with a wicked counter or something that catches the champ in a defenseless position.
Topuria is the king of boxing fundamentals. He used to fight recklessly (see his knockdown vs Jai Herbert), but has since toned down his wildness. Holloway's best avenue to victory is via points. Maybe he can use his jabs and kicks to time up Topuria's entries and keep the Spaniard frustrated.
Holloway is a fine underdog bet at the current value. For better odds, I'd take him to win by decision.
Topuria vs Holloway Pick
In the end, I'm taking Topuria to win by decision, as I don't anticipate either fighter scoring an early KO.
Topuria carries far more power in his punches and appears more motivated than ever to defend his belt. He'll control the dance and win this fight on damage.
