Umar Nurmagomedov is a -325 favorite over Cory Sandhagen (+255) in their UFC bantamweight main event at UFC Abu Dhabi on August 3.
Let's take a look at all the updated Umar vs Sandhagen odds and our best bets for the main event.
Nurmagomedov vs Sandhagen Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | -325 |
| Cory Sandhagen | +255 |
Odds as of August 1
Our odds calculator suggests Nurmagomedov's -325 odds imply a 76.47% chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $130.77. At +250, Sandhagen gets a 28.17% chance, and a $100 bet cashes $355.
Nurmagomedov vs Sandhagen Props
| Method Of Victory | Sandhagen | Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| By Decision | +650 | +125 |
| By KO/TKO/DQ | +650 | +600 |
| By Submission | +1400 | +275 |
| Total Rounds | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | -550 | +350 |
| 2.5 | -275 | +200 |
| 3.5 | -190 | +140 |
| 4.5 | -140 | +100 |
| Will The Fight Go The Distance? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -125 |
| No | -115 |
How Sandhagen Wins
Sandhagen must lure Umar into a finesse competition for this fight to be competitive. Nurmagomedov is wiry and athletic, but he's also vulnerable against talented strikers. There will be windows for Cory to lay a beating on Umar. Alas, Nurmagomedov will dive for a takedown when he feels any heat.
While Cory drilled takedown defense in pre-fight camp, he won't be able to keep Umar off him for long. That means the Sandman must start fast and furious and rack up damage. Once he's on his back, the round is probably over and scored in Umar's favor.
As far as betting leans, Sandhagen ML at +255 is the move. That's strong enough value to avoid props.
How Nurmagomedov Wins
Top control and heavy wrestling are the best ways to beat Sandhagen. Aljamain Sterling easily took care of Sandhagen in that fashion, and there's reason to believe Umar is a more dangerous and aggressive grappler than Aljo, though perhaps not as polished.
Cory is a big step up for Umar, but he's been overdue for a big test. That said, I dislike Umar's heavy chalk status at -325. This is the case of a 'dog or pass situation. If I'm forced to bet, though, I'll take Umar by submission.
Nurmagomedov vs Sandhagen Betting Pick
Again, I'm feeling 'dog or pass on this fight. We don't know how Umar can handle Cory's striking, and there's not much value in betting Nurmagomedov at the ML value.
So, by process of elimination, I'm happy to land on Sandhagen to win at +255.
