Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Odds Analysis

UFC 249 is set to take place on May 9 in Jacksonville, Florida at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, and UFC president Dana White is loading up a card after losing out on some fight nights during the COVID-19 pandemic. Headlining UFC 249 will be the main event that was supposed to be on the marquee for April 18 as Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson collides with Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje for the interim lightweight championship.

Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has listed Ferguson as the -190 favorite with Gaethje coming back at +155.

Odds Analysis

To start, it’s quite interesting to see Ferguson go from a +230 underdog in a potential bout with Khabib that was originally scheduled for UFC 249 to being a -190 favorite against Gaethje. Being a favorite is not unfamiliar territory for El Cucuy, who has been favored in 14 of his 15 bouts in the UFC, closing as an underdog only for his victory over Edson Barboza in 2016. Additionally, Ferguson carries a 12-fight winning streak into this bout, with nine of those being finishes.

Speaking of finishes, that is exactly what you’re going to get when The Highlight enters the cage. Gaethje brings with him a record of 21-2, with only three fights not ending in a knockout. He has had just six fights in the UFC, going 4-2, and was an underdog in four of them, winning three and earning backers a profit of $355 based on $100 bets. All six of those fights have ended in, you guessed it, a knockout.

How Will Ferguson vs Gaethje Play Out?

Gaethje is a bully in the Octagon, marching forward, begging his opponents to match him blow for blow. With this approach, he is able to do a lot of damage to his foes, though it leaves him susceptible to absorbing punishment as well. His most powerful attack is his leg kicks, which he throws early and often, leaving his counterparts wobbling around and setting up head shots as they will often flinch to protect the leg later in the fight. An underrated part of his skill set is his wrestling; it is underrated because he rarely uses it but it is strong.

Ferguson is an unconventional, wild fighter who uses a wide array of attacks to batter his opponents. El Cucuy has fantastic striking, keeping his opponent off balance with stiff jabs and spinning elbows. If you go back and look at the faces of his last handful of opponents after he got down with them, it looks like they got into a fight with a meat grinder. So why not take the fight to the floor, you ask? He has high-level submission skills, notably his D’Arce choke that is a good tactic against a takedown.

Both of these competitors love to get in the face of their opponent and throw down. I don’t anticipate it being a long drawn-out fight. This could very well be a first- or second-round finish in what would likely be an all-out war.