The UFC is back for the New Year on Jan. 11, when female flyweights Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night 249. Ribas is the -200 favorite at Sportsbook, and Dern is a +170 underdog.
The Dern vs Ribas odds are well-placed. These two fighters met back in 2019, with Ribas winning an easy decision. Both fighters have improved since that bout, but with Dern's one-dimensional style and poor game-planning, we could see a repeat of Ribas' victory.
Dern vs Ribas Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | +170 |
| Amanda Ribas | -200 |
Odds as of Jan. 7
Our odds calculator suggests Dern's -200 odds imply a 66.67% chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $150. At +170 odds, Dern gets a 37.04% chance, and a $100 bet cashes $270.
How To Bet Ribas
Ribas isn't a flawless fighter. She can get reckless, and her chin leaves something to be desired. While a skilled BJJ artist in her own right, Ribas won't match up to Dern's grappling talents, especially if Mackenzie takes top position.
So Ribas must push the pace on the feet. She's quick, creative, and confident about beating Dern once already. She has the sizzle to finish opposing fighters, too, though Ribas' hesitance toward Dern's grappling may neutralize some aggressiveness.
In the end, I'll take Ribas by decision. She will likely drop a round to Dern's grappling and must manage her gas tank, but all that damage on the feet adds up. Ribas can sit in the pocket and rack up significant strikes as Dern eats punches.
How To Bet Dern
Dern's best chance in this fight may be by stoppage. She's bigger and stronger than Ribas, but, as we know, the 31-year-old struggles when she strays from her gameplan. In fact, if Dern hesitates for a moment in the cage, she usually gets pummeled. I'm not saying she's a low-IQ fighter, but her in-cage decision-making can be very curious.
Her gameplan against Ribas shouldn't be too complicated. Take your time and find clinch and grappling openings off Ribas' strikes. In the meantime, Dern can throw some heavy shots; her striking is slower but not super ineffective.
For betting Dern, +170 should be enough for an underdog bet, but you can ramp up the stakes to Dern ITD for more value.
Dern vs Ribas Betting Pick
I'm taking Ribas to win by decision in this fight. She's the better striker and can fend off Dern's grappling onslaught en route to a busy decision win.
