These little fellas hit hard.
Given the stature of each 125-pound fighter, the UFC flyweight division is often overlooked. What people don't know is that this mighty group offers a goldmine for sharp bettors.
The theme of 2023 is violence. So far, 12 of 14 UFC flyweight fights this year have finished INSIDE THE DISTANCE. Oftentimes, flyweight UNDER bets carry tons of plus-money value, making this phenomenon even sweeter.
Let's explore the UFC flyweight UNDER trend below.
| Event | Winning Fighter | Losing Fighter | Rounds Total | Method Of Victory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Imavov | Charles Johnson (-345) | Jimmy Flick (+275) | UNDER 1.5 | SUBMISSION (Round 1) |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Imavov | Allan Nascimento (-350) | Carlos Hernandez (+275) | UNDER 1.5 | SUBMISSION (Round 1) |
| UFC 283 | Brandon Moreno (-135) | Deiveson Figueiredo (+115) | UNDER 3.5 | KO/Doctor Stoppage (Round 3) |
| UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivac | Tatsuro Taira (-1200) | Jesus Aguilar (+750) | UNDER 1.5 | SUBMISSION (Round 1) |
| UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivac | Hyun Sung Park (-200) | Seung Guk Choi (+165) | OVER 2.5 | SUBMISSION (Round 3) |
| UFC 284 | Kleydson Rodrigues (-360) | Shannon Ross (+280) | UNDER 0.5 | KO (Round 1) |
| UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs Blanchfield | Clayton Carpenter (-315) | Juancamilo Ronderos (+260) | UNDER 1.5 | SUBMISSION (Round 1) |
| UFC Fight Night: Dvalishvili vs Yan | Bruno Silva (-205) | Tyson Nam (+165) | UNDER 1.5 | SUBMISSION (Round 2) |
| UFC 286 | Jake Hadley (-480) | Malcolm Gordon (+360) | UNDER 0.5 | KO (Round 1) |
| UFC 286 | Muhammad Mokaev (-1000) | Jafel Filho (+650) | OVER 2.5 | SUBMISSION (Round 3) |
| UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Sandhagen | Victor Altamirano (-105) | Vinicius Salvador (-115) | OVER 2.5 | UNANIMOUS DECISION |
| UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Sandhagen | CJ Vergara (-295) | Daniel Lacerda (+220) | UNDER 2.5 | KO (Round 2) |
| UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Allen | Brandon Royval (+165) | Matheus Nicolau (-205) | UNDER 0.5 | KO (Round 1) |
| UFC Fight Night: Song vs Simon | Cody Durden (+115) | Charles Johnson (-140) | OVER 2.5 | UNANIMOUS DECISION |
UFC Flyweight UNDERs & Trends
- 12-2 on bets for fights to finish INSIDE THE DISTANCE
- Flyweight favorites are 11-3
- Seven of the 14 fights have ended by SUBMISSION, with four SUBS in the first round
- The UNDER 2.5 Rounds is 9-5
- Seven of 14 fights have ended in Round 1
Fighters to watch
Here are a couple of stoppage machines to keep an eye on.
Jake Hadley (2-1, 2 wins inside the distance)
"White Kong" is a rising stud in the UFC flyweight division. The Englishman recently dispatched veteran Malcolm Gordon by first-round KO, building a streak of two straight inside-the-distance finishes. He doesn't have another fight booked just yet, but, whoever it is, I'd peek at the odds on an UNDER bet.
Muhammad Mokaev (4-0, 3 wins inside the distance)
Mokaev is a relentless wrestler who's long been touted as a future champion at 125 pounds. His early UFC performances have reinforced that notion, too, as he's won three of his first four bouts by submission.
Muhammad Mokaev’s knee after THAT submission attempt from Jafel Filho.😬#UFC286 #UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/g1Jgkn9H4N
— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) March 19, 2023
The 22-year-old pried himself from the jaws of defeat at UFC 288, where he gritted his teeth and fought against one of the nastiest kneebars I've ever seen. Mokaev rallied and won by a last-minute choke, but we'll see how that damage carries over once his next fight is booked.
Upcoming UFC Flyweight Fights & Potential UNDERs
Here's to more violence and a fatter bankroll!
UFC 290: Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja
Neither of these guys takes their craft lightly, and with the flyweight championship on the line at UFC 290, a finish is inevitable.
Moreno, the incumbent champion, has picked up a stoppage win in three of his last four fights. He looked especially dialed in at UFC 283, where he kicked the snot out of Deiveson Figueiredo and won after Figgy's eye swelled shut.
Pantoja, nicknamed "The Cannibal," is another killer. He's on a two-fight submission streak and also holds a win over Moreno from earlier in his career.
With revenge on Moreno's mind and a five-round title fight format, I'll bet the farm on an inside-the-distance finish.
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi
This flyweight main event on June 3 could yield a surprising UNDER.
Kara-France began his career as a methodical fighter, racking up his wins by decision. But since "Don't Blink" started tackling stiffer competition, there have been some early evenings inside the Octagon. The 30-year-old has seen three of his last four bouts end inside the distance (3-1 W/L, three KOs, 1 SUB).
Money shot 💰 💥 undefeated in the @ufc and i will be the first arab champion ever 🇮🇶 pic.twitter.com/hJ052iLmni
— The Prince (@AmirAlbazi) December 19, 2022
His opponent Albazi is as scary as flyweights get. "The Prince" blends fine-tuned grappling techniques with some heavy hands. Three of his four UFC wins have ended before the final horn, and there's a good chance someone gets put to sleep in his next bout, too.
