After his victory at UFC 309, Jon Jones opened as an +107 underdog vs Tom Aspinall, the -128 favorite, in a future UFC heavyweight title unification bout.
The Jones vs Aspinall odds aren't all that surprising, as Aspinall's youth and dominant victories make him a legit contender. Jones' odds will likely shorten once this fight is booked, setting us up for one of the best heavyweight title fights in promotion history.
Here are our Jones vs Aspinall odds and picks for this fight.
Jones vs Aspinall Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Jones | +107 |
| Tom Aspinall | -128 |
Odds as of November 18
Using our odds calculator, we can determine Aspinall's -127 odds suggest a 55.95% chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $178.74. The champ Jones' +107 underdog odds give him a 48.31% chance of winning, with a $100 bet paying out $207.
Why Is Jones An underdog vs Aspinall?
Aspinall's dominance fortifies his case as a favorite against Jones. The Brit has ended all but one of his UFC fights in Round 1 and fights with speed and aggression that we've never seen at heavyweight before. New fans will underdog why Aspinall is favored.
That said, Ciryl Gane was also the early favorite against Jon Jones — and we all know how that turned out. The odds had shifted by fight night, making Jones a moderate favorite. The champion then dominated, finishing the younger fighter in the first round.
How To Bet Aspinall
Aspinall won't submit Jones, so he must buzz around him for a KO. Entrances will be key for Aspinall, as Jones does a good job evading (running from) his opponent when he senses danger. The interim champion can use his blitzes and quick combos to get Jones moving backward and then unload from there.
It's easier said than done, but there's little chance Aspinall wins a point fight against an all-time IQ man like Jones. Aspinall by KO is the only bet to make if you're keen on the Englishman. Maybe you even sprinkle Aspinall to win in Round 1.
How To Bet Jones
Aspinall will test Jones' defense. It would be unlike "Bones" to plant and trade with Aspinall at all during this fight. He'll find ways to escape and look for a tie-up to keep himself safe before attacking a takedown or something more creative. Jones is the king of ground-and-pound, so it could be an early night if the champ ends up in top position.
If Jones has his way, this fight will go OVER 1.5 rounds. Since I expect the Jones vs Aspinall odds to correct themselves soon (and make Jones the favorite), I recommend Jones by KO as my bet. Aspinall's pressure won't let him go the distance.
Jones vs Aspinall Betting Pick
Jones by KO is my play vs Aspinall, who has gone to the second round once in his UFC career. Aspinall will force Jones to get aggressive, and this fight will end with a bang.
