Kelvin Gastelum vs Israel Adesanya Betting Odds and Pick

Kelvin Gastelum vs Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya square off for the interim middleweight championship at State Farm Arena in Atlanta in the co-main event for UFC 236. Gastelum was set to fight Robert Whittaker at UFC 234 for the middleweight strap, but less than 24 hours before the card, Whittaker had to pull out with a hernia. Gastelum is a +150 underdog for the interim belt with Adesanya coming back at -185.

Odds Analysis

Gastelum was a +190 underdog heading into the scrap with Whittaker at UFC 234, which makes me wonder what Adesanya’s line would have been in the same position. Gastelum was favored in three of the previous four fights, with the only plus odds for him over that span coming in his split-decision win over Jacare Souza at UFC 224.

Meanwhile, Adesanya has been favored in four of his five career UFC fights, with his worst odds coming against Brad Tavares as they had a pick’em line. The Last Stylebender is looking to remain undefeated and is coming off an impressive win over Anderson Silva. I had Adesanya as a -180 favorite when I heard of the fight so seeing -210 isn’t too far off and makes sense.

How will this fight play out?

Adesanya is going to want to keep this fight standing where, I believe, he has a large advantage over Gastelum. However, the California native, Gastelum, has an advantage in the wrestling game as he averages 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, and has four submission victories to his name, while the Nigeria native, Adesanya, has yet to land a takedown in the UFC and has no submission wins.

The Last Stylebender is a very crafty striker who uses his length well and has incredible timing and accuracy. Gastelum prefers getting in tighter exchanges as he has fluid combinations and real power in his hooks, while never being knocked out in his career.

I think the path to victory for Gastelum is getting the bout to the floor, but shooting in against Adesanya puts him in real danger as the Last Stylebender is quick at firing his knee when opponents drop their heads. I think this is going to be a great battle and the Sportsbook will be a real threat to Robert Whittaker to unify the middleweight belts in hopefully the near future.

For a full breakdown of this fight and the entire UFC 236 main card check out my UFC 236 odds and picks article.