UFC TUF 28 Finale: Dos Anjos vs Usman Betting Odds and Picks

The 28th season of The Ultimate Fighter ends this Friday at the Pearl Concert Theater in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the card headlined with a battle in the welterweight division between Rafael dos Anjos and Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman. This fight could be a No. 1 contender bout with the Sportsbook set to fight for the belt and Usman is a -285 favorite with dos Anjos coming back at +225. I have a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card.

Dos Anjos vs Usman Fight Center

Odds Analysis

Kamaru Usman is putting his perfect undefeated 8-0 UFC record on the line in this bout and is facing his toughest test to date. On the other hand, Rafael dos Anjos looked crisp and dominant when he made the move from lightweight to welterweight last summer but ran into a tough task in Colby Covington in June that didn’t go in his favor. This is a battle between an elite-level grappler and a top-end striker and the grappler, Usman, is the clear favorite at -250. He has been favored in seven of the eight fights we have odds for with his lowest odds being -195. Similarly, RDA has been favored in six of his last seven fights, but has a 4-3 record over that span.

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kamaru Usman

Usman (-285) is an elite-level wrestler who smothers his opponents with his terrific top pressure and ground and pound. “The Nigerian Nightmare” has outstruck his opponents 783-242 over his seven fights inside the Octagon, while also landing 28 takedowns and defending 100 percent of takedown attempts. The 31-year-old has a professional record of 13-1 with his lone defeat coming in 2013 when he was submitted via rear-naked choke. Six of his 13 wins have come via knockout, but he only has one T/KO in the UFC when he knocked out Sergio Moraes in the first round.

Dos Anjos (+225) is returning to the Octagon for the first time since his loss to Colby Covington at UFC 225. Prior to that defeat, the Brazil native was on a three-fight winning streak with the last victory being an absolutely dominant win over former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. In that fight RDA imposed his will on Lawler, backing him up against the cage and throwing a flurry of combinations with an extremely high output of strikes. However, in his last fight, Covington put a frenetic pace on dos Anjos, taking him down seven times and outstriking him 142-130, and really made RDA look quite pedestrian.

This is an intriguing fight for sure. Dos Anjos is coming off a loss in which he was absolutely dominated and now has to take on Usman, whose wrestling may be on the same level as Covington’s – and perhaps even better. However, this is the biggest step up in competition for the Nigerian Nightmare as he has slowly climbed the ranks, and he hasn’t faced a striker quite like RDA who can just throw an endless number of combinations at you and just wear you down. If Usman has any difficulties dragging dos Anjos to the floor, this fight becomes really interesting.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-285) via decision

Dos Anjos vs Usman Fight Center

Juan Espino vs Justin Frazier Ultimate Fighter Heavyweight Final

Espino (-155) is a good wrestler who won his first fight of the season via unanimous decision and followed that up with a T/KO win in the semifinal to reach The Ultimate Fighter season 28 finale. “El Guapo” doesn’t pose too much of a threat in his standup game, however, in his semifinal fight he was able to finish Maurice Green with some wild swinging strikes that landed. The 38-year-old does have a good ability to pick his opponent’s ankle and finish his takedown attempts where he can do damage on the floor, as five of his eight professional wins, outside of this competition, have come via submission.

Frazier (+125) earned his spot in the finale by grinding out a decision win in the quarterfinals and secured a TKO victory in the semifinal. “The Grizzly Bear” looks exactly as his name suggests. He is a big heavyweight who marches his opponents down looking to unload his heavy hands. Of the 29-year-old’s 10 professional wins, outside of this competition, eight have been by knockout and the other two by submission. In his Sportsbook-round fight, he was able to secure a takedown in each round where he could land some solid ground and pound.

Both fighters find success by getting the fight to the mat but in two different ways. Espino likes to take his shots when his opponent overextends himself on a strike, where he then works his way toward a submission. Meanwhile, Frazier is much more aggressive in getting the fight to the ground, essentially bull rushing his opponent while throwing his heavy hands along the way and when he gets the fight to the mat, he looks to use those hands in ground and pound. It’ll be interesting to see how whoever has their back on the mat reacts to that position.

Prediction: Justin Frazier (+125) via knockout

Pannie Kianzad vs Macy Chiasson Ultimate Fighter Featherweight Final

Chiasson (-110) is a powerful striker who also has a solid wrestling pedigree. She was coach Kelvin Gastelum’s first female pick of the season. She earned her way to the finale by defeating Larissa Pacheco by first-round knockout and followed that up with another first-round knockout over Leah Letson in the semifinal. The 27-year-old batters her opponents at distance with her kicks and if she gets close with her foes she will drag them to the mat and work her vicious ground and pound. Prior to The Ultimate Fighter, she had a 2-0 record with one win by submission and one by decision.

Kianzad (-120) is an experienced mixed martial artist, competing in nearly 30 amateur boxing fights and was a silver medalist in the Swedish National Championship in Shootfighting. She also competed in Invicta, posting a 2-3 record, including a decision win over UFC fighter Jessica-Rose Clark. The 26-year-old primarily relies on her punches, not throwing many kicks, and needs to close the distance to land her hands. She has a professional record of 10-3 with three of her victories coming by T/KO. She made it to the finale by earning two unanimous decision wins, constantly pushing forward and exchanging with her opponents.

It’s good to see the UFC building the women’s featherweight division and there was plenty of talent in this season of The Ultimate Fighter and the finale is surely going to come with fireworks. Kianzad is much more experienced than Chiasson, she likes to use a lead left hook to close the distance and she has fantastic cardio that allows her to move forward for the entire duration of the bout. Chiasson’s cardio hasn’t been tested as she finished both of her fights in the first round and she attacks better at a distance with her kicks. I expect if Chiasson is experiencing any threat in the standup battle that she will work to get the fight to the mat, but Kianzad’s takedown defense is really solid.

Prediction: Macy Chiasson (-110) via decision

Pedro Munhoz vs Bryan Caraway

Munhoz (-265) is a fantastic striker with a granite chin who likes to get into brawls to really test his opponent’s will. “The Young Punisher” likes to always be throwing strikes and predominantly likes to pick away at his foe by throwing leg kicks, which pay off in the long run as they struggle to move effectively in the later rounds. The 32-year-old has won five of his last six fights, falling only to John Dodson in a close split decision at UFC 222. In addition to his solid striking, the Brazil native has an extremely dangerous guillotine choke that he has finished six fights by. The biggest knock on Munhoz is that he doesn’t avoid many strikes, defending just 58 percent thrown his way, and he absorbs 5.34 significant strikes per minute.

Caraway (+205) does everything he can to drag his opponent to the mat where he can work toward securing another submission victory. “Kid Lightning” has won 17 of his 21 professional victories by submission but hasn’t earned one in the UFC since 2014, although he had out-of-the-cage issues that forced him out of competition in the back half of 2016 and all of 2017. The 34-year-old doesn’t set up his takedowns very well, often over-extending his jab to try to close the distance and get the fight to the mat.

Munhoz isn’t an easy guy to drag to the mat, defending 71 percent of takedown attempts, and has only been taken down six times through his 10-fight UFC career and possesses that dangerous guillotine choke. Meanwhile, Caraway will continuously search for the takedown and has good cardio, remaining dangerous right into the dying seconds of the fight. Caraway does have good hands when he puts them together but they lack true knockout power and he simply uses them to close distance.

Prediction: Pedro Munhoz (-265) via decision

Munhoz vs Caraway Fight Center

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Darren Stewart  

Shahbazyan (-110) is an aggressive fighter who is making his Octagon debut after earning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. The 21-year-old is a perfect 7-0 with all seven of his wins coming via first-round knockout. He is trained by Edmond Tarverdyan, who coached, most notably, Ronda Rousey, who is also Shahbazyan’s manager. “Golden Boy” is tall for the middleweight division, standing six-foot-two, and he likes to get in close to his opponents and work in the Thai clinch, where he lands vicious elbows and thunderous knees. His power is sneaky as he doesn’t need a lot of distance to put his opponent to sleep.

Stewart (-120) is looking to put together a three-fight winning streak with his last two victories both coming via knockout. “The Dentist” has explosive power and he needs just a couple of clean shots to put his foes on dream street. He also has a solid chin that allows him to eat a few shots as he tries to close the distance without getting knocked out himself. At distance, the 27-year-old paws away with single punches at a time, but when he gets in clinch range, he has the ability to put guys away with nasty elbows and short punches, with seven of his nine career victories coming via T/KO.

Shahbazyan has never been inside the cage with a fighter of the same caliber as Stewart who can eat many shots and keep moving forward. Meanwhile, the 21-year-old hasn’t really been tested so it’s hard to judge how his chin is and whether his shots can knock out a man who’s never been put to sleep. Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series fighters have a record of 18-22 as of early August and that’s where Golden Boy is coming from.

Prediction: Darren Stewart (-120) via knockout

Shahbazyan vs Stewart Fight Center

Antonina Shevchenko vs Ji Yeon Kim

Shevchenko (-300) is making her long-awaited Octagon debut after earning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. She’s the sister of Valentina Shevchenko, the former two-time challenger in the women’s bantamweight division who’s fighting for the strawweight title next weekend. “La Pantera” is very tall and long for the 125-pound division, standing five-foot-eight, and she uses that frame very well. The 34-year-old has a wide arsenal of strikes both at a distance and in tight. Primarily, if she gets close enough, she will lock in her Thai clinch that is extremely difficult to get out of and she will rough her opponents up with knees and elbows in that position. The Kyrgyzstan native is a perfect 6-0 with two wins by knockout and four by decision.

Kim (+230) is coming off back-to-back split-decision victories for her first winning streak in the UFC. “Firefist” is exactly what her nickname says as she likes to stand and trade with her opponents as she is a former boxer and averages 4.47 significant strikes per minute. The 29-year-old has a solid chin as well, having never been finished in her professional career, despite absorbing 4.91 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. Even though she relies on her striking, she lacks true knockout power, having just one T/KO win in her career, which came back in 2015.

Don’t expect this fight to go to the mat with two exceptional strikers going toe-to-toe. Kim likes to pressure her opponents and she has the ability to land quick right hooks that do some damage, but not enough to put her foes away. Meanwhile, Shevchenko has no problem being the aggressor or sitting back and letting her opponent come to her, all the while landing outside kicks to punish them.

Prediction: Antonina Shevchenko (-300) via decision

Shevchenko vs Kim Fight Center

Here’s a look at all the odds for The Ultimate Fighter Season 28 Finale: