When betting on the UFC it’s all about finding that perfect pick to make some cash. However, those seemingly obvious bets can sometimes blow up in your face as we saw with the Rose Namajunas (+500) upset over Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217. Now with that example, I’m not saying to bet the farm on all huge dogs but rather pointing out that not all that glitters is gold.
Underdogs on the Rise?
Over the last three years inside the Octagon, the percentage of underdog winners has trended downward. In 2015 the underdog win percentage was 38.5, while in 2017 it was down to 32 percent. However, 2018 represented a bit of a comeback for the underdogs as they finished at 34 percent. The biggest upset of the year was Paul Craig (+535) over Magomed Ankalaev. The final PPV of the year was UFC 232 and Amanda Nunes’ (+180) first-round knockout of Cris Cyborg was the biggest upset of the card.
OddsShark will update the records for underdogs vs favorites broken down per card following each event. Additionally, we will break down the profits based on $100 on every underdog vs $100 on each favorite.
Here’s a look at the records for 2018:
| Event | Underdog Wins | Favorite Wins | Biggest Upset |
|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR TO DATE | 155 | 301 | Paul Craig (+535) over Magomed Ankalaev |
| UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi | 5 | 6 | Mads Burnell (+175) over Mike Santiago |
| UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou | 4 | 7 | Calvin Kattar (+185) over Shane Burgos |
| UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 | 2 | 10 | Ji Yeon Kim (+145) over Justine Kish |
| UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders | 5 | 6 | Lyoto Machida (+200) over Eryk Anders |
| UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold | 3 | 8 | Yoel Romero (+157) over Luke Rockhold |
| UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros** | 4 | 7 | Diego Ferreira (+155) over Jared Gordon |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens | 6 | 6 | Max Griffin (+310) over Mike Perry |
| UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya | 5 | 7 | Alexander Hernandez (+330) over Beneil Dariush |
| UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov | 6 | 4 | Paul Craig (+535) over Magomed Ankalaev |
| UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta | 3 | 5 | Chris Gruetzemacher (+125) over Joe Lauzon |
| UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje** | 4 | 9 | Adam Wieczorek (+275) over Arjan Bhullar |
| UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee** | 2 | 8 | Siyar Bahadurzada (+150) over Luan Chagas |
| UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington | 3 | 10 | Aleksei Oleinik (+130) over Junior Albini |
| UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman** | 3 | 9 | Claudio Puelles (+250) over Felipe Silva |
| UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till | 6 | 5 | Claudio Silva (+265) over Nordine Taleb |
| UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes | 1 | 11 | Ben Saunders (+155) over Jake Ellenberger |
| UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 | 2 | 11 | Sergio Pettis (+175) over Joseph Benavidez |
| UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards | 4 | 9 | Matt Schnell (+165) over Naoki Inoue |
| UFC - TUF 27 Finale** | 5 | 6 | Gerald Meerschaert (+180) over Oskar Piechota |
| UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier | 7 | 4 | Derrick Lewis (+255) over Francis Ngannou |
| UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov | 6 | 7 | Rick Glenn (+150) over Dennis Bermudez |
| UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith | 6 | 7 | Nasrat Haqparast (+140) over Marc Diakiese |
| UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 | 4 | 9 | Dustin Ortiz (+168) over Matheus Nicolau |
| UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 | 4 | 8 | Henry Cejudo (+350) over Demetrious Johnson |
| UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick** | 4 | 8 | James Krause (+275) over Warlley Alves |
| UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till | 4 | 9 | Diego Sanchez (+175) over Craig White |
| UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik | 2 | 10 | Jan Blachowicz (+125) over Nikita Krylov |
| UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders* | 4 | 10 | Rogerio Nogueira (+300) over Sam Alvey |
| UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor | 5 | 7 | Scott Holtzman (+250) over Alan Patrick |
| UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith** | 4 | 8 | Don Madge (+335) over Te Edwards |
| UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis* | 4 | 5 | Jared Cannonier (+300) over David Branch |
| UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez | 2 | 10 | Donald Cerrone (+170) over Mike Perry |
| UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio | 3 | 7 | Cynthia Calvillo (+160) over Poliana Botelho |
| UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 | 5 | 7 | Wu Yanan (+300) over Lauren Mueller |
| UFC - TUF 28 Finale** | 2 | 10 | Joseph Benavidez (+115) over Alex Perez |
| UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa** | 3 | 8 | Mauricio Rua (+350) over Tyson Pedro |
| UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega** | 4 | 8 | Dhiego Lima (+300) over Chad Laprise |
| UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta** | 4 | 7 | Al Iaquinta (+275) over Kevin Lee |
| UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 | 5 | 8 | Amanda Nunes (+180) over Cris Cyborg |
*Event featured a draw/no contest. **Event featured a fight with even odds.
| Event | Profit based on $100 Underdog bets | Profit based on $100 favorite bets |
|---|---|---|
| YEAR TO DATE | -6360.57 | -1663.98 |
| UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi | +$130.24 | -$160.66 |
| UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou | -$130.0 | -$40.02 |
| UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 | -$730.0 | +$347.91 |
| UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders | +$175.0 | -$221.05 |
| UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold | -$376.0 | +$118.4 |
| UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros** | -$184.96 | -$83.08 |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens | +$439.0 | -$256.11 |
| UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya | +$178.0 | -$199.55 |
| UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov | +$909.34 | -$408.64 |
| UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta | -$176.54 | -$83.53 |
| UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje** | -$275.99 | +$48.57 |
| UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee** | -$515.0 | +$199.55 |
| UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington | -$673.9 | +$167.42 |
| UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman** | -$360.0 | +$40.74 |
| UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till | +$440.0 | -$416.71 |
| UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes | -$945.0 | +$440.22 |
| UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 | -$829.76 | +$376.82 |
| UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards | -$335.0 | -$12.06 |
| UFC - TUF 27 Finale** | +$45.0 | -$139.25 |
| UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier | +$699.0 | -$460.37 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov | +$54.24 | -$129.26 |
| UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith | -$12.95 | -$280.33 |
| UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 | -$443.31 | +$64.67 |
| UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 | -$115.0 | -$70.45 |
| UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick** | -$204.76 | -$61.55 |
| UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till | -$334.76 | +$23.81 |
| UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik | -$779.76 | +$78.9 |
| UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders* | -$315.0 | +$8.04 |
| UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor | +$20.24 | -$230.13 |
| UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith** | +$5.0 | -$85.87 |
| UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis* | +$295.0 | -$281.97 |
| UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez | -$690.0 | +$308.54 |
| UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio | -$290.0 | +$6.69 |
| UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 | +$125.0 | -$261.76 |
| UFC - TUF 28 Finale** | -$794.09 | +$229.79 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa** | -$249.09 | -$26.9 |
| UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega** | +$25.0 | -$22.82 |
| UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta** | +$20.0 | -$103.73 |
| UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 | -$159.76 | -$88.25 |
*Event featured a draw/no contest. **Event featured a fight with even odds.
