Paddy Pimblett gets his biggest fight yet, sharing the co-main spotlight with Michael Chandler at UFC 314 on April 12 in Miami. Pimblett is a -174 favorite at Sportsbook vs Chandler (+136 underdog) in this five-round lightweight fight.
Many fight fans believe Pimblett has the stuff to become a future UFC champion. He'll have his mettle tested in his first UFC five-rounder against Chandler, who demonstrated a strange combo of patience and recklessness in his recent decision loss to Charles Oliveira.
Chandler vs Pimblett Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | +136 |
| Paddy Pimblett | -174 |
Odds as of March 31 at Sportsbook
How To Bet Pimblett
Pimblett is primarily a grappler with gradually improved striking. He's now on a six-fight UFC win streak with four stoppage wins during that span, including a nasty first-round submission over Bobby Green in England last summer. Paddy also has solid five-round experience from his days as a Cage Warriors champion, so I won't give Chandler an edge on that front.
I have some small concerns with Pimblett. He leaves his chin in the air at times and can be prone to inactivity on the feet. Chandler would love to expose those vulnerabilities. But when I analyze how Pimblett matches up with 2025 Chandler, I'm picking the Brit to win.
If Chandler isn't willing to go for broke in Round 1 (maybe he will this time), then Pimblett should have plenty of time to institute a grappling-heavy gameplan. Oliveira got Chandler down early and often at UFC 309, wrapping up the fight with nearly 15 full minutes of control time. Chandler resisted Oliveira's submission attempts, but I also felt like the Brazilian didn't give it his all in those moments either, gladly accepting the control victory.
If Pimblett finds himself in those spots vs Chandler, he'll put the squeeze on. Beyond the stylistic pinpoints of this fight, the original underdog odds had me deadset on Pimblett. Now, things are a little dicey, so I'll move my pick to Paddy inside the distance, as I believe his submission skills and Chandler's inevitable fatigue create a good opportunity for a finish.
How To Bet Chandler
Chandler needs a big boom, to put it in elementary terms. I cannot properly express my disappointment in his performance vs Oliveira at UFC 309, but I'm not sure why Chandler, now 38, thought a more balanced approach could help him outlast a superstar like Charles. Where was the power-punching, body-kicking madman from previous fights?
If you look at Chandler's UFC career, he has tangled with some real animals (Gaethje, Poirier, Oliveira x2) but only boasts wins over Tony Ferguson and a pre-resurgence Dan Hooker. I don't want to crap on Chandler's accomplishments, but his legacy lies in bringing the heat and dying on his sword, not narrowly edging out victories. "Iron" Mike is no longer a title contender, especially with Ilia Topuria coming to lightweight.
I would not lay Chandler as the favorite, and I'm still not sold even though he's now a moderate underdog. If you bet him, do so by knockout or alongside an UNDER 2.5 rounds parlay.
Chandler vs Pimblett Betting Pick
Since the odds swung heavily in Pimblett's favor, I'll look to take the Liverpool native to win inside the distance.
