It has been nearly three years since we have seen Nate Diaz in the Octagon, but he makes his return against Anthony “Showtime” Pettis in the co-main event at UFC 241 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California on August 18. Pettis made his UFC welterweight debut last time out in March, making the jump from lightweight, and he became the first man to knock out Stephen Thompson.
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has set the odds as a pick‘em with both fighters sitting at -115.
Odds Analysis
Anthony Pettis has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last seven fights and hasn’t earned back-to-back victories since he won five in a row from 2011 to 2014. He has been an underdog in each of his last three fights and had close to pick‘em odds in his knockout loss to Dustin Poirier in November 2017.
Meanwhile, Diaz hasn’t been favored since his knockout loss to Josh Thomson in 2013, a span of five fights. He cashed as a +315 underdog vs Michael Johnson and a +300 underdog in his first fight with Conor McGregor.
Pettis definitely has been the more active fighter recently, competing seven times since Diaz was in action, so if you believe in ring rust, there is tremendous value on Showtime.
How Will this Fight Play Out?
These are two very similar fighters, with great cardio, fantastic grappling skills and good striking. Pettis is more creative and has really solid kicks, while Diaz is long and he mocks his opponents when they step backwards as he’d rather get in a phone booth and exchange hands. Diaz also does a tremendous job throwing combinations and flurries of punches that wear on his foes.
The path to victory for Pettis is attacking the lead leg of Diaz, while I think the Stockton native needs to back Showtime against the fence and wear on him with punches in bunches and clinch work to earn the win.
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | -115 |
| Anthony Pettis | -115 |
Odds as of August 2 at Sportsbook
