UFC on Fox: Poirier vs Gaethje Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC brings the Octagon and the violence to Glendale, Arizona for UFC on Fox: Poirier vs Gaethje on April 14. The main event will see Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje – two of the most aggressive fighters in MMA today – face off in what is expected to be a war.

The rest of the main card should be just as exciting. And with so many close, exhilarating bouts expected to take place, it may be hard for you to decide who to bet. Don’t worry, here is my in-depth analysis and predictions for UFC on Fox: Poirier vs Gaethje.

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje

Poirier (-140) has always had natural aggression but his growth in the technical aspects of the game has made him great. “The Diamond” will get in his opponent’s face but he does so with his footwork, allowing him to push the opposition backward onto the cage. Poirier does his best work in tight, so trapping his opponent on the cage plays into his hand. The Louisiana native also has a nice clinch game that features some mean knees. Poirier would prefer to be standing but he has the ability to take a fight to the ground and win.

It is not always the prettiest or most technically refined, but Gaethje (+110) always brings the violence. Gaethje walks forward without any fear, trying to force a brawl – in which few fighters have ever excelled like “The Highlight.” It means he gets hit a lot – I mean an uncomfortable amount – and we saw Eddie Alvarez calmly pick him apart. Gaethje was an all-American wrestler in college, but he uses this skill set defensively because he just wants to sling leather.

This fight is more mental than anything else. Poirier and Gaethje are going to brutalize each other but whoever can stay calm in the chaos has the edge. I assume Poirier can but I know Gaethje will thrive in the disarray.  

Prediction: Justin Gaethje (+110) via knockout

Carlos Condit vs Alex Oliveira

Condit (+160) is one of the most revered fighters in recent UFC history thanks to his aggressive style and technical acumen on the feet. And though he tends to prefer setting the pace, he will happily wait for his opponent and counter. “The Natural Born Killer” has a notoriously brutal guard once he gets taken down – and he almost always will get taken down because his wrestling defense is abysmal.  

Oliveira (-200) is an athletically gifted fighter who uses his power and hand speed to work his way into the clinch. His volume is average and his striking defense isn’t good but his aggressive footwork means “Cowboy” is usually forcing his opponent backward. Oliveira is strong in the clinch, powering knees in close. He is not much of a wrestler but has the power and tenacity to land them when he needs to.

I see this playing out like Oliveira’s second fight with Tim Means. Though he prefers to strike, Oliveira knows his path of least resistance is the takedown and he will do so almost freely against Condit.

Prediction: Alex Oliveira (-200) via decision

Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori

Adesanya (-250) is one of the most highly touted prospects to come to the UFC in some time. Despite being just 28, “The Last Stylebender” has 75 professional bouts between MMA, kickboxing and boxing. Adesanya is incredibly long for the division and has one of the most versatile striking arsenals around. His grappling is still a work-in-progress but he does a decent job of avoiding the takedown considering how young he is in his MMA career.

Vettori (+195) is a well-rounded young fighter who is just starting to truly build out his striking. Typically, Vettori is more offensively focused in the striking game at this point in his career – a positive considering his natural power but a big negative in terms of defense. Wrestling is not always his first choice but it is surprisingly strong and is complemented by a better-than-most submission game.

Vettori’s questionable striking defense means he’d better wrestle early and often in this match. However, that was the same game plan Rob Wilkinson had against Adesanya and it didn’t work.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya (-250) via knockout

Michelle Waterson vs Cortney Casey

Waterson (EVEN) has a good striking game that primarily relies on her dictating the pace to succeed. Waterson comes from a karate background, which gives her some great kicks but also means she needs distance to properly utilize her arsenal. “The Karate Hottie” is at her best when she can get the takedown and bring the fight to the ground. Once on the mat, Waterson has excellent submission skills and can easily overwhelm opponents.

Casey (-130) is a brawler – which is not to say she is not technically gifted, rather “Iron-Cast” has an affinity for getting into slugfests. She does a good job utilizing her length for the division behind her jab and kicks. If she can initiate the clinch, Casey is powerful and can typically bully opponents. And though she is aggressive on the ground, her takedown defense is downright awful.

This fight plays out in one of two ways. Waterson gets the fight to the mat and twists Casey like a pretzel or Casey sticks Waterson at long range and effectively neutralizes her opponent. Ultimately, I lean toward the latter simply because of Casey’s size and strength.

Prediction: Cortney Casey (-130) via decision