Jon Jones vs Anthony Smith Odds Analysis

The light heavyweight title will be back on the line at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on March 2 as Jon “Bones” Jones looks to defend against Anthony “Lionheart” Smith. Jones recaptured his belt at UFC 232 with his third-round stoppage of Alexander Gustafsson and is a -800 favorite with Smith, who is on a three-fight winning streak, coming back at +500.

Odds Analysis

Money came in fast and furious for Jones shortly after this fight was announced as he opened as a -500 favorite and is now up to -800. Bones is accustomed to being a large favorite as he has been favored by an average line of -545 in his nine fights since 2012 that we have odds for. Meanwhile, this is the fifth time in Smith’s 11-fight UFC career that he has been an underdog and he split the first four bouts as a dog, with the most recent being his last fight when he closed at +150 vs Volkan Oezdemir – Lionheart won that fight via third-round submission.

Smith has been on an absolute tear since moving up to the light heavyweight division, rattling off three straight wins, all by finishes. Lionheart earned quick first-round knockout finishes over Rashad Evans and Shogun Rua immediately after moving up from middleweight, needing just 2:22 total to dispatch those veterans. He followed up those wins with an impressive third-round rear-naked choke over light heavyweight contender Oezdemir to earn his title shot. So at +500, you may be looking at this bet as some real value, but do so at your own peril.

Jones returned from his suspension to stand toe-to-toe with Alexander Gustafsson, the one man who really made him look human, in a highly anticipated rematch from UFC 165. Bones owned the second fight, finishing Gustafsson in the third round with an aggressive ground-and-pound TKO. The champion does a great job dissecting his opponents and really exploits their weaknesses and parlays them into victories, with his only loss being a disqualification for an illegal elbow in a fight that should have been ended long before that blow landed.

Who Will win between Smith and Jones

Although Smith has been on a finishing tear with his last seven fights ending before the final horn, six of them with his hand being raised, this is a massive step up in competition for him. The creativity and strength Jones possesses causes issues for every opponent he has ever had and I don’t anticipate anything different come March 2. Just under three years ago, Lionheart was taken down six times and outstruck 120-41 on significant strikes by Cezar Ferreira, an unranked middleweight. Jones’ wrestling and range will simply be too much for Smith and the fight could be as lopsided as the odds suggest.