Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg square off in a flyweight main event on March 29 in Mexico City. With fight night approaching, Odds Shark has teamed up with Sportsbook for a look at the UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs. Erceg betting handles and trends.
It's not surprising that the most bet-on fight at Sportsbook is actually the co-main between Drew Dober and Manuel Torres. The odds have been pretty stable in that fight, with Dober opening as a slight favorite and staying there.
While each sportsbook will receive slightly different action, here are the most popular betting handles from UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs Erceg.
UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs Erceg Betting Handles
Bettors love Moreno to win in Mexico. 79% of the handle and 51% of the tickets are on the former champ defeat Erceg. The big action has moved Moreno from -185 to -225. Those odds are a little steep for me to lay a ML bet on Moreno in what will be a close fight. In my picks article, I recommended playing Moreno ML + the OVER 2.5 rounds in a parlay to get things closer to pick'em odds.
Moreno vs Erceg Handle %
- Moreno: 79%
- Erceg: 21%
Moreno vs Erceg Ticket %
- Moreno: 51%
- Erceg: 49%
UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs Erceg Most bet Fights (Tickets)
Manuel Torres (MEX) - Drew Dober (USA)
Jamall Emmers (USA) - Gabriel Miranda (BRA)
Ronaldo Rodriguez (MEX) - Kevin Borjas (PER)
Kelvin Gastelum (USA) - Joe Pyfer (USA)
Austin Hubbard (USA) - Marquel Mederos (USA)
UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs Erceg Most Bet Props (Tickets)
Raul Rosas Jr. (USA) by Submission +200
Jose Medina (BOL) by Submission +1300
Kevin Borjas (PER) by KO/TKO or DQ +450
Joe Pyfer (USA) by Arm Triangle Choke +1000
Joe Pyfer (USA) by Submission +350
BetMGM folks love Rosas by submission, and I also like the +200 flyer. He’ll probably grind out a decision, but I respect the bold prop bettors banking on the young Mexican to find the choke.
The +350 submission line for Pyfer feels like a stretch, though. Gastelum is a solid wrestler, and his only recent submission losses came against guys like Sean Brady and Jack Hermansson, who have long histories of aggressively hunting submissions. Pyfer doesn’t have that same pedigree, and I’d be surprised if he could catch Gastelum slipping on the mat.
