Multiple UFC belts changed hands in 2023, but no one pulled off a more shocking championship upset than Alexa Grasso (+580), who upset women's flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 285.
Sean Strickland pulled off the next-biggest championship upset, knocking off middleweight king Israel Adesanya as a +470 underdog at UFC 293.
Here's a look at the favorites vs underdog records for 2023 and 2024:
UFC: Underdogs vs Favorites Records
| Event | Underdog Wins | Favorite Wins | Biggest Upset |
|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR TO DATE (2023 & 2024) | 257 (33%) | 486 (67%) | Alexa Grasso (580) over Valentina Shevchenko |
| UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Brady | 2.0 | 8.0 | Chris Padilla (210) over Rong Zhu |
| UFC 305: Adesanya vs Du Plessis | 8.0 | 4.0 | Alex Reyes (700) over Tom Nolan |
| UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs Spivac 2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | Pannie Kianzad (210) over Karol Rosa |
| UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | Belal Muhammad (+215) over Leon Edwards |
| UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs Jandiroba | 3.0 | 8.0 | Doo-Hoo Choi (175) over Billy Algeo |
| UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs Cortes | 3.0 | 8.0 | Charles Johnson (220) over Joshua Van |
| UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka 2 | 3.0 | 7.0 | Vinicius Oliveira (180) over Ricky Simon |
| UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Aliskerov | 4.0 | 7.0 | Alexander Volkov (186) over Sergei Pavlovich |
| UFC Fight Night: Perez vs Taira | 4.0 | 7.0 | Westin Wilson (257) over Jeka Sarigh |
| UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Imavov | 6.0 | 8.0 | Puja Tomar (272) over Rayanne Amanda Dos Santos |
| UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier | 2.0 | 10.0 | Niko Price (222) over Alex Morono |
| UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Murphy | 4.0 | 7.0 | Victor Martinez (377) over Tom Nolan |
| UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento | 4.0 | 8.0 | Carlos Diego Ferreira (322) over Mateusz Rebecki |
| UFC 301: Pantoja vs Erceg | 2.0 | 9.0 | Anthony Smith (350) over Vitor Petrino |
| UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez | 5.0 | 7.0 | Chris Padilla (340) over James Llontop |
| UFC 300: Hill vs Pereira | 2.0 | 7.0 | Renato Moicano (190) over Jalin Turner |
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Curtis 2 | 3.0 | 7.0 | Damon Jackson (160) over Alexander Hernandez |
| UFC Fight Night: Fiorot vs Blanchfield | 5.0 | 7.0 | Kyle Nelson (222) over Billy Algeo |
| UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs Ribas | 2.0 | 11.0 | Julian Erosa (141) over Ricardo Ramos |
| UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura | 7.0 | 5.0 | Ovince Saint-Preux (462) over Kennedy Nzechukwu |
| UFC 299: O'Malley vs Vera 2 | 5.0 | 9.0 | Joanne Calderwood (185) over Maryna Moroz |
| UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev | 3.0 | 8.0 | Aiemann Zahabi (525) over Javid Basharat |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Royval 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | Brandon Royval (230) over Brandon Moreno |
| UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria | 2.0 | 9.0 | Josh Quinlan (165) over Danny Barlow |
| UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Pyfer | 6.0 | 7.0 | Jack Hermansson (220) over Joe Pyfer |
| UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Imavov | 4.0 | 8.0 | Charles Johnson (240) over Azat Maksum |
| UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura | 4.0 | 11.0 | Paul Craig (180) over Andre Muniz |
| UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza | 3.0 | 8.0 | Darren Elkins (150) over TJ Brown |
| UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan | 6.0 | 6.0 | Dustin Stoltzfus (275) over Punahele Soriano |
| UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Silva | 1.0 | 11.0 | Mayra Bueno Silva (136) over Holly Holm |
| UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 | 6.0 | 8.0 | Veronica Macedo (315) over Juliana Miller |
| UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 | 1.0 | 8.0 | Kyle Nelson (209) over Fernando Padilla |
| UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira | 1.0 | 5.0 | Jessica Andrade (190) over Mackenzie Dern |
| UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez | 3.0 | 8.0 | Steve Garcia (210) over Melquizael Costa |
| UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 | 2.0 | 8.0 | Muhammad Naimov (250) over Nathaniel Wood |
| UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 | 3.0 | 8.0 | Derrick Lewis (175) over Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
| UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac | 1.0 | 10.0 | Nora Cornolle (110) over Joselyne Edwards |
| UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley | 1.0 | 4.0 | Sean O'Malley (205) over Aljamain Sterling |
| UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs Albazi | 4.0 | 9.0 | Muhammad Naimov (342) over Jamie Mullarkey |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.Imavov | 3.0 | 8.0 | Roman Kopylov (121) over Punahele Soriano |
| UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana | 5.0 | 5.0 | Steve Erceg (227) over David Dvorak |
| UFC 293 Adesanya vs. Strickland | 3.0 | 9.0 | Sean Strickland (475) over Israel Adesanya |
| UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | 7.0 | 5.0 | Neil Magny (300) over Mike Malott |
| UFC 290 : Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez | 6.0 | 7.0 | Denise Gomes (285) over Yazmin Jauregui |
| UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie | 4.0 | 9.0 | Song Kenan (265) over Rolando Bedoya |
| UFC Fight Night : Vera vs. Sandhagen | 4.0 | 4.0 | Daniel Pineda (225) over Tucker Lutz |
| UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski | 3.0 | 9.0 | Elves Brenner (450) over Zubaira Tukhugov |
| UFC Fight Night 223: Dern vs Hill | 0.0 | 11.0 | No dog wins |
| UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier | 5.0 | 6.0 | Nicolas Dalby (150) over Muslim Salikhov |
| UFC Fight Night : Pavlovich vs. Blaydes | 7.0 | 3.0 | Gomis William (165) over Francis Marshall |
| UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis | 2.0 | 7.0 | Nicolas Dalby (400) over Gabriel Bonfim |
| UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington | 4.0 | 8.0 | Josh Emmett (210) over Bryce Mitchell |
| UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon | 5.0 | 5.0 | Irina Alekseeva (250) over Stephanie Egger |
| UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield | 3.0 | 8.0 | Jamall Emmers (138) over Khusein Askhabov |
| UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili | 5.0 | 7.0 | Ariane Lipski (300) over Jj Aldrich |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria | 5.0 | 7.0 | David Onama (180) over Gabriel Santos |
| UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane | 1.0 | 13.0 | Alexa Grasso (580) over Valentina Shevchenko |
| UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev VS. Walker 2 | 2.0 | 9.0 | Nikolas Motta (290) over Tom Nolan |
| UFC 287 : Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | Sam Hughes (217) over Jaqueline Amorim |
| UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font | 3.0 | 9.0 | Ludovit Klein (185) over Ignacio Bahamondes |
| UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivac | 3.0 | 7.0 | Adam Fugitt (270) over Yusaku Kinoshita |
| UFC Fight Night : Rozenstruik vs. Almeida | 4.0 | 7.0 | Mandy Bohm (195) over Kim Ji Yeon |
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig | 2.0 | 11.0 | Jeka Saragih (375) over Lucas Alexander |
| UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill | 4.0 | 11.0 | Brunno Ferreira (250) over Gregory Rodrigues |
| UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen | 5.0 | 8.0 | Pedro Munhoz (175) over Chris Gutierrez |
| UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos | 3.0 | 9.0 | Cub Swanson (235) over Hakeem Dawodu |
| UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo | 4.0 | 7.0 | Matt Frevola (177) over Drew Dober |
| UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot | 4.0 | 7.0 | Cody Brundage (410) over Jacob Malkoun |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov | 6.0 | 6.0 | Elves Brenner (450) over Guram Kutateladze |
| UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green | 6.0 | 4.0 | Bobby Green (350) over Grant Dawson |
| UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen | 4.0 | 6.0 | Brendan Allen (180) over Andre Muniz |
As the chart illustrates, underdogs have cashed at a 32% clip through 2023 and 2024.
Remarkably, UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis kicked off 2024 with seven underdog wins and only five favorite victories. Those seven 'dog wins mark the most on a card since UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Pavlovich on April 22, 2023.
UFC: Underdogs vs Favorites Profits
| Event | Profit based on $100 Underdog bets | Profit based on $100 Favourite bets |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Brady | -$437.50 | -$197.82 |
| UFC 305: Adesanya vs Du Plessis | +$189.91 | -$784.60 |
| UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs Spivac | +$478.00 | -$493.94 |
| UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad 2 | +$362.00 | -$595.82 |
| UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs Jandiroba | -$245.00 | -$302.00 |
| UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka 2 | -$137.0 | -$296.53 |
| UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Aliskerov | -$403.50 | -$395.17 |
| UFC Fight Night: Perez vs Taira | +$47.50 | -$395.15 |
| UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Imavov | +$231.00 | -$595.42 |
| UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier | -$777.50 | -$196.82 |
| UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Murphy | +$352.00 | -$395.18 |
| UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento | -$180.00 | -$319.50 |
| UFC 301: Pantoja vs Erceg | -$417.50 | -$196.75 |
| UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez | +$211.00 | -$495.46 |
| UFC 300: Hill vs Pereira | -$505.00 | $-196.49 |
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Curtis 2 | -$295.00 | -$294.28 |
| UFC Fight Night: Fiorot vs Blanchfield | +$97.50 | -$494.62 |
| UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs Ribas | -$820.50 | -$194.82 |
| UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura | +$667.0 | -$693.27 |
| UFC 299: O'Malley vs Vera 2 | -$201.0 | -$496.12 |
| UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev | +$10.0 | -$297.90 |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Royval 2 | -$55.0 | -$396.31 |
| UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria | -$625.0 | -$196.87 |
| UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Pyfer | +$150.0 | -$276.9 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Imavov | -$121.0 | -$394.37 |
| UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura | -$505.0 | -$395.91 |
| UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza | -$385.0 | -$295.5 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan | +$400.0 | -$593.49 |
| UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Silva | -$963.5 | -$96.55 |
| UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 | +$302.5 | -$596.94 |
| UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 | -$590.5 | -$97.05 |
| UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira | -$310.0 | -$90.15 |
| UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez | -$296.0 | -$295.93 |
| UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 | -$336.0 | -$196.91 |
| UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 | -$329.0 | -$295.25 |
| UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac | -$890.0 | -$95.96 |
| UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley | -$195.0 | -$91.63 |
| UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs Albazi | -$222.5 | -$394.15 |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.Imavov | -$449.0 | -$297.46 |
| UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana | +$252.5 | -$490.96 |
| UFC 293 Adesanya vs. Strickland | -$255.0 | -$296.3 |
| UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | +$715.0 | -$692.4 |
| UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez | +$552.5 | -$597.62 |
| UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie | -$415.0 | -$397.03 |
| UFC Fight Night : Vera vs. Sandhagen | +$80.0 | -$388.94 |
| UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski | -$143.0 | -$296.3 |
| UFC Fight Night 223: Dern vs Hill | -$1100.0 | +$3.64 |
| UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier | +$25.5 | -$495.79 |
| UFC Fight Night : Pavlovich vs. Blaydes | +$365.0 | -$691.83 |
| UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis | -$187.0 | -$195.84 |
| UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington | -$236.0 | -$395.14 |
| UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon | +$284.0 | -$490.92 |
| UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield | -$452.0 | -$295.93 |
| UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili | +$302.0 | -$495.3 |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria | +$51.0 | -$493.54 |
| UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane | -$720.0 | -$98.28 |
| UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev VS. Walker 2 | -$463.0 | -$197.23 |
| UFC 287 : Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 | +$236.0 | -$493.64 |
| UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font | -$408.5 | -$294.92 |
| UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivac | -$80.0 | -$296.57 |
| UFC Fight Night : Rozenstruik vs. Almeida | -$85.0 | -$395.57 |
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig | -$615.0 | -$197.34 |
| UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill | -$624.5 | -$397.75 |
| UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen | -$90.0 | -$493.3 |
| UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos | -$425.0 | -$295.59 |
| UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo | -$278.0 | -$395.64 |
| UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot | +$102.5 | -$394.23 |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov | +$704.5 | -$595.71 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green | +$587.5 | -$591.46 |
| UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen | -$175.0 | -$395.84 |
Blindly betting $100 on every underdog or favorite isn't a swell strategy, but, in this case, it shows us the most profitable UFC cards of the last two years.
As expected, the seven underdogs made a killing at UFC 297, delivering a whopping $715 in profit.
