Usman vs Edwards 3 Odds & Picks: Can Lightning Strike Twice?

A trilogy fight for the ages takes place at UFC 286. Leon Edwards (20-3, 12-2-1 UFC) makes his first welterweight title defense against Kamaru Usman (20-2, 15-1 UFC), the man the Englishman stole the belt from last summer while winning the “2022 Knockout of the Year.” The five-round bout takes place March 18 on Edwards’ home soil at the O2 Arena in London. 

The challenger Usman is the -250 favorite, leaving Edwards as the +200 underdog. 

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman 3 Betting Odds

Odds as of March 13

Analyzing the Edwards vs Usman odds using our sports betting calculator, Usman’s -250 odds translate to an implied win probability of 71.43 percent, meaning a $10 bet on him pays out $14 (a return of your original $10 plus $4 in profit). Edwards’ +200 odds imply a 33.33 percent win probability and a $10 bet on the underdog pays out $30. 

For more information on how these numbers work, including the Usman vs Edwards odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, feel free to visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 Preview

Usman and Edwards know each other well by now. How will a third fight play out?

What Usman Does Well

In the last fight at UFC 278, Usman had the victory in the bag. He fought his proper game plan the entire evening, landing takedowns and dominating control time in the Octagon. By the fifth round, Edwards’ body and spirit were both crushed.

The Trilogy!

Less than two weeks until we're back on PPV for Edwards vs Usman 3!

📺📱 #UFC286 | March 19 | Live on PPV! pic.twitter.com/Mnk5hdJDqt

— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) March 7, 2023

Then Leon pulled it out of the fire with a minute left and shocked the world. Obviously, that’s what Usman needs to avoid. Over the years, he’s developed a habit of dipping his head when he throws strikes – after constant domination, you start to slip – and “Rocky” caught him on a blistering feint to a high kick. For Usman to win this fight, he needs to keep his guard high and be very cautious of how he enters into range. 

While Edwards became the first fighter to take “The Nigerian Nightmare” down, Usman is still the better wrestler. That’s the blueprint for victory Saturday.

What Edwards Does Well

Leon didn’t get a ton of love before his title upset. He’s not a super exciting fighter (just four stoppage wins in 15 UFC fights) but the 278 bout showed the world how technical he is. It also revealed how fighters can will themselves to victory with mental toughness. 

For Leon to defend his belt, he’ll need a better strategy for managing the takedowns and fending off Usman’s pressure on the fence. That’s the real key in this fight, as I doubt lightning strikes twice with a pulverizing head kick on Edwards’ end. The 31-year-old is a very good fighter, and he’ll be competing at home, but his coaches will need to institute a seriously improved game plan for keeping the fight on the feet. If that happens, Leon’s +200 value is electric. 

Edwards vs Usman Betting Pick

Well, what are the odds something crazy happens again? As much as I’d love to see another historic finish, I’m not willing to bet on such a twist. Even if Usman has lost a step, his hard-nosed style should carry him to a five-round victory. 

There’s no chance this five-rounder turns into a slugfest because that’s not what Kamaru wants. He may not carry the belt, but he’ll lug plenty of champion energy into this fight. Still one of the greatest MMA fighters ever, Usman isn’t washed up just yet. 

Pick: Usman to win by decision (+120); Fight to go the distance (-160)

UFC 286: Full Card & Betting Odds

Odds as of March 17