Prediction Markets Get Friendly Appointment At CFTC With Brian Quintenz

On Wednesday, Brian Quintenz announced that President Donald Trump was nominating him to become the next chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC regulates several key areas of the US economy such as contract markets including prediction markets.

It is my great honor to be nominated by President @realDonaldTrump as the next Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where I had served as a Commissioner in his last administration. The @CFTC plays a critical role in maintaining robust hedging and price discovery…

— Brian Quintenz (@BrianQuintenz) February 12, 2025

It's important to note that Brian Quintenz, who was previously a commissioner for the CFTC from 2017 to 2021, serves on the board of prediction market site Kalshi, which also boasts Donald Trump Jr. as a Strategic Advisor. This means Quintenz will have to regulate himself. Or will at the very least know how to get around the regulator.

That latter point likely served Kalshi well when in 2023 they sued the CFTC and won after the regulator tried to block the site from offering political event contracts.

Prediction Markets Are Stepping In

Prediction markets are online markets where individuals can bet on future events, termed "event contracts". These markets exploded in popularity in the run-up to the 2024 US Presidential election where sites like Polymarket and Kalshi offered contracts to wager on the election, something that was not legal for regulated sportsbooks.

These online markets have started slowly encroaching into the sports gambling space, starting with event contracts for the Super Bowl. Kalshi took in $27 million in handles. That's a small sum compared to what sportsbooks were taking in, but it's an impressive start.

And again, it's just a start.

Recently Kalshi notified the CFTC that it was stepping into sports prop markets by offering contracts that fit: "Will <achievement> be obtained by <participant>?" It's a move that will greatly enhance the number of sports event contracts they can offer in the future and chip away at traditional sportsbooks' market share even more.

Having Quintenz at the top of the CFTC would indicate a friendly regulatory path for prediction markets to increase their footprint in the gaming industry.