The Players Championship Odds: Will Scheffler Live Up To Chalk Status?

The biggest event on the PGA Tour’s calendar takes place this week with the 50th playing of the Players Championship. The 2024 Players Championship represents the PGA Tour’s flagship event and welcomes back past champions like Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler.

It is Scheffler who will begin the week as the heavy favorite at +550 on the oddsboard. The world No. 1 was a class above the rest in his victory last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational ultimately cruising to a five-stroke triumph for his second tournament title in three years.

2024 Players Championship Odds

Odds as of March 12

Scheffler has shown a knack for playing well at the same golf courses year over year when looking at his results at TPC Scottsdale, Bay Hill Club & Lodge and other venues. TPC Sawgrass could be the same for the best player in the game and could spell trouble for the rest of the field at this tricky par 72.

McIlroy and Thomas are the only two players to be listed under +2000 at +1200 and +1800 respectively. Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland have poked their heads at TPC Sawgrass in the past and lead the list of contenders that include the likes of Max Homa, Will Zalatoris and Jordan Spieth. The drop off from Scheffler is noticeable, but if the Texan slips up that means extra value is to be had on the betting board for this year’s Players Championship.

2024 Players Championship Betting Picks

Xander Schauffele To Win (+2000): The consistency has been there for Schauffele as he holds the longest made cut streak on the PGA Tour, but the winning upside has not.

The world No. 6 will look to breakthrough for the first time since the summer of 2022 and TPC Sawgrass could be ripe for his picking. Since the beginning of the calendar year, Schauffele ranks second in total strokes gained, second in strokes gained tee-to-green, fourth in strokes gained off the tee and sixth in strokes gained around the green.

He has a bit of an odd history at TPC Sawgrass as he battled injuries a couple years and the weather draw in 2022 before a nice result last year. Schauffele also claimed a runner-up result in his first appearance showing his game translates at this venue. It will be all about Schauffele’s iron play this week and if it shows up then he has the game to keep up with Scheffler if need be.

Collin Morikawa To Win (+2800): This week represents a really nice buy-low opportunity on Morikawa as he comes off a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

It was an ugly performance at Bay Hill from the two-time major champion, but he is capable of bouncing back at this appetizing price. Morikawa finished T-13 in last year’s Players Championship after surging ahead in Round 1 with a round of 7-under 65. Morikawa failed to break 70 across the final three days, but he has shown on more than one occasion that his game can translate.

He is a perfect fit for TPC Sawgrass as Morikawa drives the ball in the fairway with the best of them and remains one of the better iron players on the PGA Tour. His putter was better towards the end of the West Coast swing and that will ultimately be the club to keep him afloat.

Russell Henley To Win (+4000): For my money, Henley is the most underrated player on the PGA Tour. Over the last 12 months, Henley ranks fourth in driving accuracy, seventh in total strokes gained, ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green, 11th in strokes gained approach and 10th in strokes gained around the green. His putting checks in at 34th during this same span, but the transition to Bermuda grass in Florida has been extremely beneficial as Henley has found his groove the last two weeks.

He comes off a really nice finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he was featured in the penultimate group Sunday only to finish in a share of fourth place. Not only is Henley playing well at the moment and over a long period of time, but he is also a dream fit for TPC Sawgrass and the volatile nature of the golf course. One of the steadiest players on Tour, Henley has cashed finishes of T-19 and T-13 the last two seasons and should improve on those this time around.

Adam Hadwin To Win (+8000): The Canadian has popped up on leaderboards over the last half year with runner-up results at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Shriners Children’s Open.

In the new year, he has continued to impress with a top 10 at The American Express and a top five at the Genesis Invitational. The reason for Hadwin’s emergence this late in his career has been a resurgence in the ball-striking department. He consistently gains strokes on the field off the tee and with irons in hand and is just awaiting a tournament for this to match his historically strong short game.

Over the last three months, Hadwin checks in the top half of this field in both terms of distance and accuracy off the tee and 30th in total strokes gained. This is skewed given a couple poor starts, but it is clear Hadwin has mega upside especially at the golf course like TPC Sawgrass where he has finished T-13 and T-9 the last two years.