For some reason, surprise winners take the title at the PGA Championship all the time. Just look at 2021 PGA Champ Phil Mickelson, who became the oldest major champion in the history of golf a few years ago.
So, that makes this major the perfect tournament to lock in some long-shot picks. Below, we've got a breakdown of what we're looking for in our PGA Championship picks and some sleeper selections for the tournament:
What Goes Into A PGA Championship Sleeper Pick?
We've had a few big tournaments at Oak Hill's East Course over the years, with three US Opens and three PGA Championships. The home of this year's PGA Championship has big greens and fewer water hazards, so we're not going to value the approach metrics too much. However, as a 7,400-yard par 70, the course requires some distance.
It's not just the par 5s that play long though, as Oak Hill has two Par 3s over 230 and four Par 4s over 460. So we're looking for guys who can pound the driver and irons.
Stats To Look For:
- Average Driving Distance
- % of Yardage Covered Off Tee
PGA Championship Sleeper Pick: Wyndham Clark
- To Win: +8000
Wyndham Clark has everything we're looking for in a PGA Championship sleeper pick. The 29-year-old ranks ninth in average driving distance and 25th in percent of yardage off the tee.
He's also coming into this major on a heater. Clark has finished inside the top six in four of his last six tournaments, including a win at the Wells Fargo Championship in early May.
Clark doesn't have a track record at majors, unfortunately, finishing 75th and 76th at the only two majors he's even made the cut for. But, maybe he's got a regional edge at the PGA. It's probably pure coincidence, but Americans have dominated this tournament in recent years. Not only has an American won each of the last seven PGA Championships, but there's also been an American in second place in the last six, too.
The winning moment for @Wyndham_Clark 🥹 pic.twitter.com/94iYotEq80
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 7, 2023
PGA Championship Sleeper: Adam Scott
- To Win: +8000
Scott isn't playing quite as well as Clark these days, but he also posted a top-five finish at the Wells Fargo earlier this month. But, his case is more reliant on the numbers.
Scott averages 308.2 yards with his driver, good for 27th on tour, but he's a strong irons player off the tee. His overall percent of yardage covered from the tee is 65.21 percent, which shoots up to 11th on tour.
He's also not going to be intimidated by the major spotlight. Scott has won the Masters before and finished inside the top five at every other major (including two third-place finishes at the PGA Championship).
How far do you hit your 5 iron?
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) March 24, 2021
Adam Scott sticks it close with his from 237 yards during the 2018 PGA Championship.#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/35wt7JnXwD
PGA Championship Sleeper: Trey Mullinax
- To Win: +100,000
Trey Mullinax has just one career PGA Tour win to his name, but he's made the 2023 PGA Championship field and has the statistical makings of a contender. Mullinax is one of the rare golfers on tour who ranks within the top 20 in average driving distance and percent of yardage covered off the tee. He hits it 311.1 yards with his driver (14th highest) and covers 64.96 percent of yardage off the tee (17th).
Those are great traits for Oak Hill, but they haven't translated to success for Mullinax yet (hence his long odds to win the tournament). The 30-year-old Alabama native has missed the cut at five of his last six tournaments and has just one top-10 finish in 2023. Surely that's a convincing argument on why you should pick him, right?
In all seriousness, Mullinax is probably not going to win the PGA Championship. But, when a +100,000 long shot fits the statistics we're looking for, we've got to sprinkle a bit just in case.
