Two years ago, the Baltimore Orioles were on the come-up. They dominated the AL and entered the 2023 playoffs at full steam. The Rangers immediately swept the O's in the ALDS that year. 2024 was no better, with the Royals sweeping the Orioles in the Wild Card round.
Still, the Orioles have a strong outlook for 2025. The club's chances of winning the division are weaker now, but Baltimore is still widely expected to be a playoff club with aspirations to win its first playoff game since 2014.
2025 Orioles Odds: Division, AL Pennant, World Series
| World Series Odds | NL Pennant Odds | AL East Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +1400 | +400 | +260 |
Odds as of Feb. 12
This was not a memorable offseason for Baltimore. The Orioles bolstered their lineup by signing outfielders Tyler O'Neill and Ramon Laureano, catcher Gary Sánchez, and pitchers Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Andrew Kittredge. However, the team also saw significant departures, including outfielder Anthony Santander and pitcher Corbin Burnes. These moves resulted in a net loss of 1.5 WAR (6.4 WAR added and 7.9 WAR lost).
Burnes was a massive piece for the O's, who could fall into Wild Card territory with a slump by one of Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson. I'm not very high on BAL this season, even with a bullpen boosted by the return of Felix Bautista.
The O's won't win the AL East, and I certainly don't expect them to claim the pennant or the World Series either.
2025 Orioles Win Total Odds
| 2025 Win Total | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| 88.5 | -105 | -115 |
Odds as of Feb. 12
The O's offseason losses have me leaning toward the UNDER 88.5 wins. Pitching depth is key for a long, winning season, and I'm not sure the Orioles have enough. While Grayson Rodriguez shows promise, the rotation lacks proven consistency, especially after losing Burnes.
Plus, the AL East is stacked, with the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rays all fielding stronger teams in 2025.
2025 Orioles Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| -210 | +165 |
Odds as of Feb. 11
At these odds, I prefer betting the Orioles to miss the playoffs (+165). While their young core is talented, it’s unrealistic to expect all their top prospects — including Jackson Holliday — to pan out as hoped, which could leave gaps in both their lineup and rotation.
2025 Orioles: AL MVP Odds + AL Cy Young Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | +750 |
| Adley Rutschman | +5000 |
Odds as of Feb. 12
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | +2500 |
Odds as of Feb. 12
There's less star power on the Orioles this year, which is reflected in the absence of BAL players lining the MVP and Cy Young odds boards. Gunnar is probably the best bet on the board at +750 to win AL MVP. He posted an exceptional 9.1-WAR season last year, finishing fourth in MVP voting. I'm less stoked about Henderson because his numbers fell off in the second half. He hit just nine homers in the final 64 games and posted a .799 OPS.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has the stuff to win a Cy Young award, but the young righty has suffered from injuries and hard-contact issues, which limit his upside. I'm steering clear.
