It's all about the UNDERs for my MLB expert picks today!
If you love betting the OVER, look away. But, the pitching matchups in today's Marlins vs Braves and Cardinals vs Cubs contests have me betting against the runs.
Here are my two MLB picks for August 1st:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Marlins vs Braves UNDER 8.5 (-104)
Marlins vs Braves Odds - Game Time: 7:21 pm ET
Let's start with the obvious: the Miami Marlins lineup is in utter chaos. After trading nine MLB players on deadline day, there isn't much left in Miami. There isn't a single qualified player left on the roster with a season OPS over .700. Three of Miami's last five games have gone under 8.5 runs, too — and those were before the team unloaded half the lineup.
While Charlie Morton's season ERA of 4.16 (and 5.31 in July) wouldn't seem like the best UNDER opportunity, remaining Marlins hitters have a career .222 average and .633 OPS against the veteran righty.
On the Marlins' pitching side we've got Max Meyer, who's been pretty great in his four starts this season. He's held opposing batters to just seven total runs across four starts for a 3.00 ERA. And, active Braves hitters have a .214 career average and .571 OPS against him, lifetime.
The trends are also on our side here, as the UNDER has gone in the last three meetings between Miami and Atlanta. With this pitching matchup, I'm confident the recent trends will continue and this one will go UNDER 8.5 (-104).
MLB Expert Pick Today: Cardinals vs Cubs UNDER 8.0 (-122)
Cardinals vs Cubs Odds - Game Time: 8:06 pm ET
This is another divisional matchup where I love the pitchers.
For Chicago, we've got first-year lefty Shota Imanaga who has a 2.95 ERA on the season and 2.55 mark in July. In one career start against the Cardinals he held St. Louis to a single run in seven innings and the total runs came in at six. In Imanaga's last eight starts, the total has been at or below 8.0 runs six times.
The Cardinals counter with Sonny Gray who may be rocking a 6.75 ERA this month, but he's still got a 3.79 ERA on the season. The UNDER 8.5 runs hit in six of his last 11 outings. I also don't expect the Cubs offense to muster much against him today. Current Cubs hitters have a lifetime .193 average and .521 OPS against Gray. The Cubs also aren't hitting the ball well lately in general, with the 20th ranked team OPS (.718) over the last 30 days.
Two Cubs guys I am afraid of are Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson, who both have career averages over .330 and OPS over 1.000 against Gray. They are both -175 to get a hit tonight.
Yes, the last three meetings between Chicago and St. Louis have gone OVER. But, if you stretch this back for the entire 2024 season, the UNDER is 5-4 in Cubs vs Cardinals games this year.
