I'm very much back with two MLB expert picks for today.
I've got two fades today, betting against the Red Sox with Brayan Bello on the mound and wagering against the Dodgers who send out Walker Buehler. I'm taking the underdogs in both games.
Here are my two MLB expert picks for Wednesday:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Blue Jays ML (+120) vs Red Sox
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds - Game Time: 7:11 pm ET
The Jays are on one hell of a hot streak, winning six of their last seven games, including a double-header sweep of the Red Sox on Monday.
In the month of August, the Jays are 14-10 (their best month of the season). The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 11-13 this month — their worst month of 2024.
With that in mind, tonight’s pitching matchup makes a Blue Jays bet obvious. Chris Bassitt holds current Red Sox hitters to a .272 combined OBP and .760 OPS. Boston’s Brayan Bello allows a .439 OBP and 1.068 OPS to Jays hitters. The last time Bello pitched against the Jays he allowed seven runs in 2.1 innings — Toronto won 9-4.
One batter who really tags Bello is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .421 career average and 1.345 OPS in 19 at-bats against Bello. Vlad has two homers already against Bello, and you can bet on a third at +500 tonight.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Orioles ML (-106) vs Dodgers
Orioles vs Dodgers Odds -- Game Time 10:11 p.m. ET
Not many pitchers have success against this Dodgers lineup. Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes is the exception. Burnes holds current Los Angeles hitters to a .585 OPS in 93 total at-bats. Last time Burnes faced the Dodgers, he twirled seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts.
The Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler on the mound. The 30-year-old righty is 1-4 this season with a 6.09 ERA, the Dodgers have been worth -2.51 units in his starts this season. Burnes has been +1.83 units in his starts for the Orioles.
The hitting side of this is also a slight Baltimore edge. The Orioles have a team OPS of .749 in the last month, averaging 4.96 runs per game. The Dodgers have a .734 OPS, averaging 4.88 runs per game.
With both the pitching and offensive advantages leaning to Baltimore, I’ll talk the Orioles as slight underdogs, for sure.
