We're back with NRFI picks today for some MLB playoff action. We'll start in the evening with a NRFI bet in the Phillies and Mets game. After that, we'll continue with the NRFI trend for Yankees-Royals, a series that has already seen two NRFI outcomes.
See all our NRFI picks below for today's slate of postseason baseball.
NRFI Pick Today: Phillies vs Mets (-120)
Phillies vs Mets Odds -- Game Time 5:08 p.m. ET
The NRFI hit in Game 3 of this series, and I recommend rolling with the same play for Game 4, despite Philadelphia's excellent numbers against LHPs. While Philly finished third in MLB during the regular season with a .768 OPS vs lefties, that number didn't help them at all in Game 3, when Sean Manaea delivered a fantastic start to shut them out through six innings.
So while Philadelphia was a YRFI-heavy club (83-79) during the regular season, it's time to change gears for this contest. It starts in the top half with Jose Quintana going for the Mets. Again, the Phils hit lefties well, but they didn't catch onto Manaea and the current lineup has terrible numbers vs Quintana.
Active Phillies hitters are batting just .241 with a .645 OPS in 191 at-bats. That's a big sample size. Guys like Nick Castellanos (.667 OPS), Bryce Harper (.598 OPS), and Trea Turner (.542 OPS) have all struggled against Quintana.
In the bottom half, Ranger Suarez also rocks some solid numbers vs his opponent. Mets hitters own a .692 OPS off him, including some ugly lines from Pete Alonso, whose .635 OPS off Suarez is far below his career average.
NRFI Pick Today: Yankees vs Royals (-120)
Yankees vs Royals Odds -- Game Time 7:08 p.m. ET
After the NRFI hit in the first two games of this series, I'm surprised we can snag this innings prop at fair -120 value for Game 3. I suppose the sportsbooks are concerned about big Aaron Judge or Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt's sketchy numbers against Royals hitters. Based on what my eyes have told me in this series, these offenses will take longer than one inning to heat up.
Why am I so confident? Well, Schmidt and Royals starter Seth Lugo never really faltered in the first inning of their regular season starts. Schmidt spun a 1.93 ERA in 14 outings, while Lugo pitched to a 1.97 first-inning ERA in 32 starts. Lugo also nailed the NRFI in his lone Wild Card round start against the Orioles.
Also, the Yanks big sluggers haven't shown me much in this series. For example, Judge is 1-for-7, while Juan Soto is a solid 3-for-8 but hasn't driven in a run yet.
