I've got two MLB expert picks for today's slate!
I'm riding with Yusei Kikuchi, who hasn't lost a single start since joining the Astros at the trade deadline. I'm taking Houston as underdogs this afternoon.
Here are my two MLB picks for September 25th:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Astros (+110) vs Mariners
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Odds -- Game Time 2:11 p.m. ET
The Astros should never be underdogs with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, I don’t care the matchup.
Since Kikuchi joined Houston, the Astros have won each of his nine starts. The lefty has a solid 3.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP since joining Houston, which wins a lot of games when backed with his 5.2 runs of support per contest. If you bet on every Kikuchi start since he joined Houston, you’d be up 6.03 units.
I get that Kikuchi’s Astros face off against a strong George Kirby today. But, Kirby actually has an ERA over 4.5 in his last 10 starts and the Mariners have lost nine of his last 15 outings.
With undefeated Kikuchi on the mound and the Astros set as underdogs, there’s no way I’m betting against Houston.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Pirates (+124) vs Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
This is another game where I think the underdogs just provide great value. Pirates starter Luis Ortiz has a 2.93 ERA in his last five starts, with Pittsburgh winning three of those contests. He’s also pitched twice against the Brewers this year, allowing two runs in 4.2 innings pitched.
The main reason I like the dogs in this one is a fade of Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta, though. Peralta faced the Pirates once earlier this year, walking five batters and allowing five earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. That’s a trend for Freddy, too, as he’s allowed a .295 career average and .897 OPS to current Pittsburgh bats.
Guys like Bryan Reynolds (1.158 OPS) and Andrew McCutchen (1.250 OPS) crush Peralta, historically.
