I hope everyone had a fine Labor Day weekend, and I'm rewarding everyone with two winning MLB expert picks for today.
I'm taking the Marlins (don't kill me) on the moneyline in our first game, then pivoting to the UNDER in a Chris Sale Braves start vs the Rockies.
Here are my two MLB expert picks for Tuesday:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Marlins (-115) vs Nationals
Marlins vs Nationals Odds - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
I don't often subject baseball fans (or sports fans of any ilk) to watching nine innings of Marlins vs Nationals. That said, I think Tuesday's matchup could be a lot of fun.
Baseball bettors know Patrick Corbin well. He's a polarizing pitcher, often the butt end of betting jokes, and he's amid another ugly year with a 5.00+ ERA. While still profitable (+1.03 units), we're going to fade him today. Active Marlins hitters batted .312 off him in 16 at-bats, plus the Fish are hot on offense lately, jumping on the starting pitcher with some rare haste. Over the last two weeks, the Marlins own an .853 OPS in the first six innings of games, the second-best mark in MLB.
The odds in this contest are properly placed, so there's not much to glean in that department, but Miami starter Max Meyer can also help us out. The rookie has been on and off this season — a quality start here; a blowout there — but he remains narrowly profitable (+0.23 units). With the Nats offense pumping out a lame .694 OPS in the last seven days, I bet Meyer will have one of his better games of the year, and that makes it worth a Marlins ML bet.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Rockies vs Braves UNDER 7.5 Runs (-115)
Rockies vs Braves Odds -- Game Time 7:20 p.m. ET
The Atlanta Braves will win this game. I have zero doubt about this. The -390 ML odds are a problem but feel free to lay that bet as the first leg in a parlay. Hell, you can even bet the Braves -1.5 at -170, which I also consider a very strong bet. But for more value, I'm banking on the UNDER 7.5 runs at Truist Park in Atlanta.
Thankfully, the thin air of Coors Field won't be a factor, so that's lovely. And we've also got Braves ace and likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale on the hill for Atlanta. Again, Atlanta has won eight of his last 10 starts, and three of Sale's last four starts have gone UNDER 7.5 runs, which is a lower total than normal. I'm not scared of Sale goofing our UNDER in this contest. It's more Kyle Freeland that gives me pause.
Freeland cruised in June (1.42 ERA) and July (3.52 ERA) before water found its level in August (5.19 ERA). Now, I don't think he's a 5.00-ERA pitcher, but he's certainly not a guaranteed bet. That said, the Braves aren't knocking the cover off the ball lately (.704 OPS in the last two weeks), and active Braves hitters own a surprisingly normal .764 OPS off Freeland in a significant sample size of 92 at-bats.
I quite like the idea of parlaying the Braves ML with the UNDER 7.5 runs, so I'd consider that bet if you're looking for some plus-money value.
