Mets Skyrocket Up World Series Odds After Signing Juan Soto

The Mets actually did it. Steve Cohen and the New York Mets just became the big brothers of New York baseball, giving Juan Soto all the money to leave the Yankees and sign in Queens — 15 years, $765 million.

But, what does this Mets' Soto signing mean? Are the blue and orange going to run away with the World Series? Are the Yankees cooked? I'll break it down:

Soto Skyrockets Mets Up Odds

Honestly, I thought the Mets' World Series odds last week already accounted for the good chance they could sign Soto — they sat at seventh in WS odds at +1400. For a team that snuck into a playoff spot and could make some moves in the winter, that seemed about right. But now they're up to SECOND?!

Honestly this +700 price for Soto's Mets to win the World Series seems a bit much. The Mets are probably losing Pete Alonso and this is still a team that has Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas slated in at SP2 and 3 in the rotation. I'm taking the Braves, Phillies, Orioles, Astros, and Padres over the Mets still.

Sure, if Cohen goes out and signs Corbin Burnes and a few relievers, maybe the Mets more deserving of this second spot. But, I think the Soto hype is pushing this Mets' price up to a place not worth betting — at least wait a few weeks to see if it ticks back after everyone calms down.

Just look at how much Soto officially signing in Queens moved the Mets' odds:

The Yankees & Red Sox Downfall

The Mets won the Soto sweepstakes, but there were four other finalists who missed out. While the Blue Jays and Dodgers always seemed like a stretch, Red Sox and Yankees fans actually thought Soto was signing with them. The potential for a Soto deal in those AL East destinations was actually baked into their World Series price, it seems, as both squads have tumbled down the odds board after losing out:

These teams will likely now pivot to the same Tier 2 free agency targets (Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried). At least the Red Sox have a young core coming up, with one of the best farm systems in baseball. But, with Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, and Carlos Rodon all over 32, the Yankees have a pretty tight window here to try to compete. They'll need to do some real heavy lifting in the rest of this winter to push back into the top tier of World Series contenders.