We're still waiting to find out where Juan Soto sings this MLB offseason, but it does seem like we're approaching a decision. ESPN's Jeff Passan has reported we may get a signing by the time the 2024 Winter Meetings begin, on Monday, December 9th.
Wherever Soto's free agency decision takes him will have a massive impact on the league's landscape and 2025 World Series odds. So, I'll break down Soto's free agency odds to determine his most likely destinations and discuss how Soto signing with the Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox would move the futures markets:
Juan Soto Free Agency Odds
You can find free agency odds for all of MLB's top players looking for new teams at a number of sportsbooks. Here are the latest odds I could find for Juan Soto's free agent destination, from BetMGM:
- New York Mets (+300)
- New York Yankees (+350)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+425)
- Boston Red Sox (+500)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+700)
For the first time this offseason, the Yankees are not favored to re-sign Soto.
It's another New York team, the Mets, who have the beset odds at +300 with an implied shot of 25% to nab the young stud on a massive contract. Most other teams are long-shots, though we know Soto took meetings with squads like the Blue Jays and Red Sox. There have been some rumblings from unreliable sources about a Boston signing.
Signing Soto Will Boost Mets World Series Odds
The Mets have a solid young core, motivated owner, and over $162 million dollars that just came off the payroll — easily the most expected room to spend in baseball. They can offer Soto more money than any other team in the league and he wouldn't even have to move cities from his 2024 home.
If the Mets signed the lefty walk-machine, the hype would be incredible. Imagine a Mets lineup that features Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto at the top? And it wouldn't even be their only move of the offseason, likely, as I expect New York to also be in the 1B, SP, and RP markets.
Francisco Lindor has reportedly been recruiting Juan Soto to the Mets https://t.co/1C6lLAsSFx pic.twitter.com/qYwjCVRoYn
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 12, 2024
I do think the Mets' potential to add Soto (or at the very least a bunch of top free agents) is a big reason they currently sit in seventh in the latest World Series odds (+1400). But, if the Mets do seal the deal with Soto, they should jump ahead of teams like the Orioles, Astros, and Phillies, cracking the top-five. Even if they miss out on Soto, the Mets could bring back Pete Alonso, sign top pitcher Corbin Burnes, and add a few other pieces.
I expect the Mets to jump in these World Series odds before Opening Day based on offseason moves, regardless of if it's Soto they sign, so I do think it's a great time to invest. Heck, if you don't believe in the Mets come Opening Day, you could be able to cash out by then for a small profit when the line moves!
Do Yankees Need Juan Soto?
While I think the Mets are a good offseason odds investment, due to the potential to sign Soto or other free agents, I view the Yankees as the opposite. New York currently sits second in World Series odds at +700, but that number could tumble if Soto walks to Queens or elsewhere.
The Yankees are also set to lose Soto, Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Rizzo, Clay Holmes, and a few other relievers. They've got a LOT of work to do to stay a serious World Series threat. So, to retain this +700 spot in WS odds, they basically must re-sign Soto. Losing the young slugger would put a dent in New York's futures value. So, if you want to bet on the Yankees to win the title next year, I'd wait and see how this winter plays out, first. Even if they bring back Soto, I doubt New York jumps much higher than +700.
Are Red Sox A Juan Soto Dark Horse?
This doesn't sound like as much of a two-horse New York race as we thought, as both the Blue Jays and Red Sox have made serious pitches with some serious money to back them up. I still think both destinations are unlikely, but something about the Red Sox could work.
The Red Sox only have $137 million in 2025 payroll projected right now ($50 million below their final 2024 payroll). Plus, Soto has previously stated the Red Sox were his childhood favorite team.
#BREAKINGNEWS MEETING TODAY: Juan Soto to the Boston Red Sox is reported to be “more than possible, not just smoke and mirrors.” Soto is a lifelong long Red Sox fan. @CBSSports can confirm. #MLB pic.twitter.com/th1pmmebLE
— Brenton Kelley (@CBSBrenton) November 13, 2024
The Red Sox have already moved in markets due to connections to Soto, currently sitting ninth in World Series odds (+2500). Officially signing Soto would skyrocket them up the list. If you're tossing down a bet on Soto to sign with Boston, why not double down on a long-shot World Series future on the Red Sox, too? You also bet the Sox to win the American League at +1200, at FanDuel right now.
