The MLB playoffs are here, and my NRFI picks for today feature two picks on Wild Card games. We're starting in the early window, where Tarik Skubal makes a NRFI bet likely. After that, I smell some danger in the Brewers-Mets game, so I'm hitting the YRFI.
See all our NRFI bets below for the first games of the postseason.
NRFI Pick Today: Tigers vs Astros (-170)
Tigers vs Astros Odds -- Game Time 2:32 p.m. ET
You know it's playoff time when the NRFI odds start at -170. It's notoriously difficult to score in the postseason, and today's pitching matchup in the first AL Wild Card game won't make the feat any easier. For example, the Astros were a NRFI-heavy team (86-71) in the regular season, and now they draw AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal in Game 1.
Beyond winning the AL pitching Triple Crown, Skubal also dices in the first inning. Surprise, surprise. The left-hander owns a 2.10 ERA in the first inning. Houston has hit Skubal hard in the past (.869 OPS), but this Astros lineup wasn't quite as strong in the final two weeks of the season, batting for just a .760 OPS. All to say, I'm not worried about Skubal, despite some shaky numbers vs Houston.
Then we have Framber Valdez, another excellent NRFI left-hander. Valdez was just as good in the first inning as Skubal was this season, yielding a 2.33 ERA in 27 regular-season starts. Given the Tigers' overall weak offensive profile and the club's struggle vs LHPs (.685 OPS), Houston will deliver a quiet top half of the inning.
YRFI Pick Today: Mets vs Brewers (+115)
Mets vs Brewers Odds -- Game Time 5:32 p.m. ET
The value helps push me toward a YRFI bet in this contest, but I've also sourced some small nuggets that suggest both starters may struggle in this contest. For example, Luis Severino is an elite NRFI pitcher. He spun a 0.90 ERA in the first inning during the regular season and looked like the man from those 2017 Yankees days. But even a new New York uniform won't be able to stop his postseason struggles. In fact, I think the Mets jersey will enhance his issues.
The Mets are owed a hangover game after an exciting clinch on Monday, and Severino is an easy fall guy. The righty owns a career 5.15 ERA in 10 playoff starts. Homers have been a big problem (1.6 HR/9), and just one solo shot will crack our YRFI bet. Active Brewers hitters also own a .953 OPS off him in 45 at-bats.
And all that fun comes before we even get to Freddy Peralta, the Brewers' ace starter. He's a reliable and exciting arm, just not in the first inning, where his 5.23 ERA should ward off NRFI bettors. He's a champion of the YRFI, too, and between Peralta and Severino, we're in a good spot Tuesday.
