My NRFI picks for today feature a surefire NRFI pick on the Cardinals and Brewers in a no-offense matchup for the ages. After that, it's a YRFI play in the Yankees-Rangers game, where struggling youngster Jack Leiter (12.43 ERA) is on the hill.
See our MLB NRFI picks today!
NRFI Pick Today: Cardinals vs Brewers (-125)
Cardinals vs Brewers Odds -- Game Time 2:10 p.m. ET
Sometimes, you get really lucky with a matchup. In this Brewers-Cardinals game, I'm looking at two of the worst first-inning offenses in baseball right now. And a bad offense supersedes a pitching matchup because bad first-inning at-bats are contagious. St. Louis (82-55 NRFI) and Milwaukee (72-64 NRFI) are violently ill right now.
Here's our golden nugget of information courtesy the lovely database at FanGraphs. Over the last two weeks, the Brewers have had the worst first-inning offense in baseball, batting 9-for-50 as a club with a .376 team OPS. Yuck. Meanwhile, the Cards are brutal, too, ranking 27th in baseball during that span with a .479 OPS in the first inning.
This important data speaks louder than the flaws and successes of today's pitchers, Andre Pallante and Freddy Peralta, but I'll address this, too. Pallante is much smoother, registering a 3.00 ERA and a clean 12-3 NRFI record. I'll bet him every day. Peralta is messier at a 5.67 first-inning ERA, but he's posted four consecutive NRFIs, indicating he's found his groove.
YRFI Pick Today: Yankees vs Rangers (-115)
Yankees vs Rangers Odds -- Game Time 8:05 p.m. ET
I'll begin by noting the Yankees and Rangers have a propensity for YRFI outcomes in very different ways. New York (75-62 YRFI) bashes teams with its epic offense, where a tandem of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge get it done. Texas (70-67 YRFI) manages their good effort despite a weak offense, leaving it up to their pitchers to fall apart. I predict another collapse by the Rangers' starter Monday.
Jack Leiter (3-1 NRFI) is our victim today, poised for a second consecutive YRFI outcome. Despite his first-round status, Poor Jack hasn't found it at the major-league level, posting a 12.34 ERA in four starts. Naturally, those struggles translate to the first inning, where he's allowed three runs in four starts. The kid has big stuff but absolutely no command (2.40 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9), so the Yankees will capitalize on all that mess in the first.
Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees (10-2 NRFI), and while he's less of a factor in this bet, the Rangers can still tag him. Active Texas hitters bat .291 off Cole with an .843 OPS in 134 at-bats, so they've seen him and have an attack plan.
