We've got two NRFI picks today. I'm playing the odds for a NRFI today in the Astros and Mariners contest. After that, I'm looking to the Mets and Braves to cash me out as Chris Sale takes the hill in a game with deep playoff implications.
See our MLB NRFI picks today!
YRFI Pick Today: Mariners vs Astros (+135)
Mariners vs Astros Odds -- Game Time 2:10 p.m. ET
As you might've guessed, this is primarily an odds play. You rarely see such long odds on one side of a Y/NRFI bet, so I'll lean toward the value. I think a 42.55% implied probability is quite fair for a YRFI, especially when you dig into some of the numbers behind this matchup.
We can start with Yusei Kikuchi, the beating heart of this bet. Kuch has been quite good since joining the Astros but remains an inconsistent first-inning arm. The lefty owns a 4.06 ERA in the first, with opponents posting an .823 OPS with seven homers in 31 innings. Kikuchi yielded a NRFI last time out, and there's great hope on my end that he does the same today.
There's added optimism on my end because the Mariners' quiet bats are hot as hell now. Seattle has been one of the best first-inning offenses in baseball over the last week, batting .345 with an .883 OPS, flexing some added power.
Now George Kirby will be a problem for the Astros bats, but with such great odds on a YRFI bet, I recommend betting a half unit at least to capitalize on some realistic implied outcomes.
NRFI Pick Today: Mets vs Braves (-150)
Mets vs Braves Odds -- Game Time 7:20 p.m. ET
Hear me out before you curse me for hopping to the other end of the spectrum with a chalky pick. The pitching matchups are sizzling in this matchup, and there's really no play other than a nice NRFI.
The Braves offense torched Luis Severino yesterday, but I'm not so sure it can starch David Peterson. This year, the crafty lefty is 19-1 NRFI, including nine consecutive NRFIs. And as I noted yesterday, it's not like the Mets (.224 BA) or the Braves (.254 BA) possess insane first-inning offenses. Peterson must be sharp for our bet to hit, as he represents the weaker link. Why?
Yep, Chris Sale goes for Atlanta. Even at 20-9 NRFI, he seems unstoppable, gunning for his 10th consecutive NRFI outing as he makes one final start to cap off his NL Cy Young season.
Sale vs Peterson is far more deserving of the chalky odds than Kikuchi vs Kirby, which makes this bet much more palatable for me.
