Our NRFI picks today are sweet and simple. I've got a NRFI bet in the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals contest, where poor offense and good pitching seals the deal. Then I'm fading the Toronto Blue Jays with a NRFI bet in their contest against the St. Louis Cardinals.
See our MLB NRFI picks today!
NRFI Pick Today: Marlins vs Nationals (-125)
Marlins vs Nationals Odds -- Game Time 6:45 p.m. ET
Nationals and... is a good strategy for NRFI betting. While the Nats are no longer the kings of the NRFI outcome (that's the Cardinals), they still rank among baseball's best. A matchup vs the Marlins will do Washington well.
DJ Herz is the main man for Washington, hunting for his fourth consecutive NRFI outcome. Overall, he has pitched quite well lately, spinning a 2.65 ERA over his last seven starts, and that success translates to the first inning, too. The rookie reps a 2.81 ERA in the first inning, where opponents bat just .186. That plays well against a Miami squad that owns a heavy YRFI record, largely due to poor pitching, not elite offense.
And that's why this matchup works: the Nats have a bad offense (.202 BA) and the Marlins pitch poorly. That said, Edward Cabrera (15-2 NRFI) has been the best of the bunch in The 305, rocking an incredible 2.65 ERA in the first inning. Opponents slash just .127/.262/.318 off Cabrera in the first this year, so I'm giving the Nationals offense no chance in this one.
NRFI Pick Today: Cardinals vs Blue Jays (-125)
Cardinals vs Blue Jays Odds -- Game Time 7:07 p.m. ET
I teased this earlier: the Cardinals are baseball's best NRFI club at 98-68 this year. Evenly balanced between poor hitting and staunch pitching, St. Louis sends Erick Fedde (22-6 NRFI) to the mound against a Jays offense that has smoldered out over the last week or so.
After a few months of pure first-inning dominance, Toronto's bats are in peril. The Blue Jays own a .478 OPS in the first inning over the last seven days. That's a .105 BA and a .150 SLG. Just hideous stuff. So I'd say Fedde doesn't have much to worry about
As far as the Blue Jays pitching staff goes, Kevin Gausman (21-7 NRFI) should be alright as long as he dismantles Paul Goldschmidt. For example, Nolan Arenado is just 2-for-14 lifetime vs Gausman, but Goldschmidt is 6-for-9 with a homer. Luckily, this decrepit version of Goldschmidt isn't the same man as years past, so I believe in Gausman's ability to shove for his seventh consecutive NRFI.
