My NRFI picks for today start with a NRFI bet in the Marlins and Pirates game (Paul Skenes is the key here). After that, I expect a runfest in the Cubs vs Dodgers late game, where Walker Buehler's 8.25 ERA helps us out.
See our MLB NRFI picks today!
NRFI Pick Today: Marlins vs Pirates (-125)
Marlins vs Pirates -- Game Time 6:40 p.m. ET
Paul Skenes (14-5 NRFI) is no longer the stone-cold NRFI lock he used to be, but, at large, he's a strong NRFI bet, especially against a weak club like the Marlins. While Skenes ran into some command trouble during his last start (four walks), he spun a five-inning shutout. The Bucs aren't letting Skenes go longer than six innings these days, so there's more reason for him to air it out and cook in the first inning. That's just soft evidence, but it helps our NRFI pick today.
The Marlins (.256 BA) are a better first-inning offense than the Pirates (.211 BA), which bodes well for our NRFI setup, as Skenes can shut down the Fish while rookie Valente Bellozo (7-2 NRFI) gets a shot at a third consecutive NRFI.
The Marlins have debuted several rookie pitchers this season, and Bellozo appears to be better than the bunch. The Mexican righty owns a 3.78 ERA overall, but he's better in the first inning, where his ERA drops to 3.00 and he yields a .680 OPS to opposing hitters.
YRFI Pick Today: Cubs vs Dodgers (-125)
Cubs vs Dodgers Odds -- Game Time 10:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers are a mean YRFI club (75-68), and they've only improved as the season continues. For instance, Los Angeles is the best YRFI club in baseball over the last two weeks, slugging .824 with a 1.255 OPS. This bodes very well for our YRFI pick, as a solo homer is very possible in the first inning, especially with the matchup on the mound.
Kyle Hendricks owns a 17-3 NRFI record this season, but he gets torched by the Dodgers. Active Dodgers hitters own an .818 OPS vs Hendricks. I'm watching for a first-inning Shohei Ohtani homer since the Japanese slugger is 2-for-3 lifetime vs Hendricks with a double and a homer. Freddie Freeman is also batting .357 with a 1.143 OPS in 14 at-bats vs Hendricks.
While I'm betting on a big first inning from the Dodgers offense, it's not like the Cubs can't score in this one. Walker Buehler (7-5 NRFI) has been awful this season, and his poor play extends to the first inning. He owns an 8.59 ERA in the first, with opponents hitting for a 1.059 OPS. Buehler has allowed 11 first-inning runs in 12 starts, so we've got this bet burning from both ends today.
