My NRFI picks for today feature a surefire NRFI pick on the Red Sox and Mets. After that, it's a NRFI play in the Cubs-Pirates game, where offense will be scarce.
See our MLB NRFI picks today!
Picks made Wednesday, September 4, as of 9:15 a.m. ET.
NRFI Pick Today: Red Sox vs Mets (-115)
Red Sox vs Mets Odds -- Game Time 7:10 p.m. ET
Normally, I'm heavily dependent on pitching matchups for a NRFI prediction, but I will stray away from the norm for this pick, mostly because Mets starter Tylor Megill doesn't inspire much confidence.
While Megill owns a 5-5 NRFI record, his 7.00 ERA in the first inning suggests danger is on deck when he toes the slab. A deeper dive reveals he's not all that bad in the first, as opponents slash .286/.388/.381 off him. The OBP is concerning, yet his .381 SLG isn't much to fret about. He's worth the risk today at -115 NRFI odds.
Tanner Houck (23-4 NRFI) is our main man for the Red Sox, and I have zero worries about him. It now comes down to Boston and New York's offenses, both of which have struggled lately. The Sox own a .620 OPS in the first inning over the last seven days, while the Amazins rank even lower with a .592 OPS during that span.
It's not a perfect science, but this matchup is worth the risk as a standalone bet or even a parlay play with our second Y/NRFI of the day.
NRFI Pick Today: Pirates vs Cubs (-115)
Pirates vs Cubs Odds -- Game Time 7:40 p.m. ET
The Cubs (86-53 NRFI) and Pirates (83-55 NRFI) grade out as two of the most reliable NRFI clubs in baseball, so I always try to bet them in games like these. The numbers have been the same all season: the Bucs own a brutal .205 BA in the first inning; the Cubs bat .222. It's just a sad day for offense all around.
I love this bet mostly because of the weak offenses. That said, my interest piques when Shota Imanaga takes the hill. The Cubs left-hander remains an excellent pitcher, even if he's no longer in the race for the NL Cy Young or ROTY. Imanaga owns a 21-4 NRFI record this season alongside a 2.25 first-inning ERA. His counterpart, Domingo German, has started just one game this year but it resulted in a NRFI.
