My NRFI picks today feature a NRFI bet as two low-scoring clubs, the Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals, square off at 8:10 p.m. After that, I'll gladly wager a YRFI on the Texas Rangers-New York Yankees game, as the pitching matchups favor a run in the first inning.
It's a great day in MLB for some NRFI best bets, so let's get to it.
NRFI Pick Today: Cardinals vs Royals (-115)
Cardinals vs Royals Odds -- Game Time 8:10 p.m. ET
You might think: "Oh no, Bobby Witt Jr. is a menace. No way the NRFI cashes." Well, I'm here to pump the brakes because while Witt is a superstar in his own right, the Royals (73-61 NRFI) are a reliable NRFI team. Kansas City bats just .252 in the first inning with just two first-inning homers in the last 14 days. The Cardinals (68-48) are milder than the Royals in the first, hitting just .225.
Our pitchers in this matchup move the needle, too. For instance, Miles Mikolas (18-5 NRFI) has been the Cards busiest starter, though his hard contact numbers (5.12 ERA, 9.9 H/9) suggest he needs a rest. He's fine in the first inning, pitching to a 3.75 ERA with a .683 opponent OPS. That relieves some of my worries.
Michael Lorenzen (16-3 NRFI) makes another start for Kansas City. He delivered a NRFI in his first start with the Royals last week and can lean on a 3.34 first-inning ERA to do his job in this contest.
There are no decisive trends either way in this bet. Mikolas has delivered six straight NRFIs, but other than that, we're counting on the offenses to flounder and each starter to do just enough. Sometimes that's what it takes to nail a NRFI pick.
YRFI Pick Today: Rangers vs Yankees (-115)
Rangers vs Yankees Odds -- Game Time 7:05 p.m. ET
Over the last month, no club is better at hitting in the first inning than the Yankees (1.048 OPS). The club's .631 slugging percentage is outrageous, and you can bet your bottom dollar Aaron Judge is in the thick of that success. The AL MVP favorite owns a .529/.652/1.235 slash line in the first inning since July 10, a terrifying element on its own. But the Yankees also have three other hitters (Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres) with a first-inning OPS north of 1.000.
The Yankees (63-53 YRFI) are a deadly squad before we even consider pitching matchups. It just so happens New York gets Cody Bradford (2-2 YRFI), who has allowed two first-inning homers in four starts as he claws back from the injured list. The Bronx Bombs can overpower Bradford, while the Rangers (58-57 YRFI) have a good chance of their own with Carlos Rodon (9-14 YRFI) on the hill for New York. He yields a 7.83 ERA in the first inning, making this the best YRFI bet of the day from both angles.
